In a recent video confession, the former spokesman of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Ehsanullah Ehsan openly talked about the involvement of the Indian spy agency Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) in terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. This comes on the heels of the death sentence awarded to Kulbushan Jadhav. The statement more or less would further substantiate Pakistani claims regarding India’s subversive activities. This, in conjunction with the festering tiff over Jadhav and the flared-up situation in Kashmir is a bane for peace in South Asia. The Indo-Pak theatre is likely to heat up even more in the days to come. But this is how it has been for most of the 70 years of Indo-Pak relations.
Wars, battles and open hostilities have typified the relation between India and Pakistan ever since they became sovereign states. Unresolved disputes and by-crises have hampered peace in South Asia. The Indo-Pak rivalry has merited extensive scholarship from across the globe owing to a host of factors which are well-documented. Hostilities continue to simmer because of the inability to find viable solutions of outstanding issues, especially the Kashmir conflict. Besides, old wounds and the burden of history makes it hard to create an atmosphere of friendship and cooperation. Narratives of both countries are conflicting; both states accuse each other of causing instability and trouble.
The two South Asian giants are armed to the teeth with conventional and nuclear weapons. Their combatants are eyeball to eyeball and they await a triggering event to engage with each other. The nuclear rung in the escalation ladder and conflict spectrum makes war even more ruinous. The cost of war between the two countries is colossal especially under a nuclearized environment.
Despite the horrors of war and the need for establishing better relations between the two neighbors, the South Asian theatre remains volatile. It is important to briefly highlight the happenings that have again brought both nemeses on the brink of war.
The Kashmir conundrum lies at the heart of Indo-Pak tussle. Over the years the status quo was intact and no real efforts were made to change it, barring piecemeal diplomatic campaigns. However, it was a matter of time when India’s increasing application of military power was resisted indigenously. Throughout 2016, Kashmiris were at loggerheads against Indian forces. The response of the Indian state apparatus was two-pronged. Pro-freedom elements were ruthlessly targeted by Indian forces and the ante was upped against Pakistan. Forces from both countries regularly embroiled in firefights along the Line of Control (LoC). The caliber of weapons used ranged from small arms to heavy artillery. The situation escalated further when an attack on a military installation in Uri was followed by Indian claims of carrying out a surgical strike along the LoC. This resulted in more frequent military clashes over the next few months. Besides, India launched a well-crafted diplomatic offensive to isolate Pakistan.
Though, military confrontation reduced by the end of 2016 but the situation in Kashmir conflagrated and has now become a huge challenge for the Modi Regime. India blames Pakistan for this fresh and potent wave of Kashmiri determination. India is vociferously stressing upon the international community to declare Pakistan a “terrorist state”.
Pakistan denies such allegations and labels India as the perpetrator of violence in Pakistan. It also blames India for fomenting succession ideas in Balochistan. This is partly due to the well-celebrated role that India played in breaking Pakistan way back in 1971. The capture of an Indian spy, Kulbushan Jadhav gave credence to Pakistani claims, since the former officer of the Indian navy confessed his role in causing ruckus and mayhem in Pakistan.
Kulbushan Jadhav has become the latest bone of contention between both countries. It is noteworthy to mention that Kulbushan Jadhav was sentenced through the Field General Court Martial (FGCM) under the Pakistan Army Act (PAA) 1952.
The Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) gave out the details in the following press release: “R&AW agent Commander Kulbushan Sudhir Jadhav was tried by FGCM under section 59 of Pakistan Army Act (PAA) 1952 and Section 3 of official Secret Act of 1923. FGCM found Kulbushan Sudhir Yadhav guilty of all the charges. He confessed before a magistrate and the court that he was tasked by R&AW to plan, coordinate and organize espionage/ sabotage activities aiming to destabilize and wage war against Pakistan by impeding the efforts of Law Enforcement Agencies for restoring peace in Balochistan and Karachi”.
Both countries see Kulbushan Jadhav differently. For Pakistan, he is a non-state actor who deserves to be punished for his grotesquely heinous acts which jeopardized the security of the country. On the contrary, India considers him a legitimate son of the soil. Hence, India has unequivocally stated the resolve to use all options to help Jadhav attain justice. This brings both countries at loggerheads once again. The issue is not likely to die down. The military leadership of Pakistan, in a Corps Commanders’ conference reiterated a no-compromise policy on Jadhav.
A diametrically different approach on Jadhav’s issue is not a good sign for a peaceful South Asia. Both states could well be embroiled in a bloody conflict which would have the propensity to escalate towards a nuclear exchange. All this emanates from India’s idea to use a credible military threat to “compel” and “deter” Pakistan. Over the course of the past few months, the Indian political and military leadership have threatened to carry out airstrikes and invoke their proactive war strategy.
Apart from tactical and operational challenges in conducting airstrikes and launching Cold Start both military courses will run the risk of escalation.
The Cold Start Doctrine calls upon the Pivot Corps, Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) and Strike Corps along with air support to bite and hold territory, 15 to 25 kilometers inside Pakistani. If India manages to breach Pakistani columns, Pakistan will have to take punitive retaliatory action to gain control. India would be enticed to press on but if they are unable to breakthrough they would concentrate firepower which would cause escalatory pressure. Pakistan may invoke their tactical nuclear weapons and shift the burden of escalation on India as Indian inroads would not be considered as limited. Hence, the proactive war strategy is incendiary in nature
Likewise, airstrikes on alleged militant hideouts inside Pakistan will be responded ferociously. The air combat will not only be supplemented by ground operations but will also lower the nuclear threshold. Pakistan may not perceive Indian airstrikes as limited and a means to terminate war. Hence, the hostility will increase militarily, and a so-called limited war could turn into an all-out war with ever increasing likelihood of a nuclear clash.
It is hence safe and apt to argue that Indo-Pak relations are more likely to traverse on a collision course, especially because of the death sentence awarded to Kulbushan Jadhav and the supplementary utterances by Ehsanullah Ehsan.
