Courtesy: Sputnik News

Courtesy: Sputnik News

World Order 2.0

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The non linear progression of world politics, lately, has taken an unsatisfactory trajectory which may not bode well for the existing global order. Mass exodus of refugees from war-torn Middle East washing ashore the European beaches is counter poised with receding tolerance of locals and aggrandizement of nationalist sentiments. The great powers rivalry reminiscent of the era of Pax Britannica is manifesting itself in the form of resurgent China, Russia, and the United States of America. This epoch heralds the turbulent times ahead and ostensibly the inception of a new world order.

Confrontation lurks in the backdrop of China and Russia relationship with the US. The functionalist cohesion of European politics doesn’t seem long lasting as the issue of Br-exit (Britain exit from European Union) is palpable. It is toted that there is already a de facto British withdrawal from the EU leadership on foreign, defence and security matters in substance, and its departure would hardly make a difference but such opinions fail to account for the symbolic value of Britain inclusion in the EU. The European wider political milieu will undergo a transition from British withdrawal. It will become more globally assertive and its dependence on the United States will reduce. It also augments the proposition that the shaky union may collapse as a result.

“NATO’s failure to prevent the Balkanization of Ukraine (Russia’s annexation of Crimea) has led the world to mull over the efficacy of European collective defence alliance. Laissez Faire approach of Western order to Russian ingresses has emboldened Kremlin; also solidifying the perception that Europe lacks the will to protect its territorial sovereignty.

An apparent unwillingness of the EU to ‘defend its principles’ has been exploited fullest by Russia. Resultantly, NATO’s failure to prevent the Balkanization of Ukraine (Russia’s annexation of Crimea) has led the world to mull over the efficacy of European collective defence alliance. The Laissez Faire approach of Western order to Russian ingresses has emboldened Kremlin; also solidifying the perception that Europe lacks the will to protect its territorial sovereignty.

As for the Asian theatre, the remarkable ascendance of People Republic of China has created hurdles for US Asia Pivot strategy. Notwithstanding what their visible inclinations are, China has routinely posited since 1974 address of Deng Xiaoping in the United Nations General Assembly that it doesn’t seek dominance of the world. The policy guidelines issued in the 2015 “white paper” eloquently outlines it, “China will never seek hegemony or engage in military expansion now or in the future, no matter how developed it becomes.” Paradoxically, a lengthy struggle in East Asia between China and Japan, backed by US, can be explained through the theoretical model of offensive realism which is in sharp contrast with Chinese propagation.

“The last seven years are marked with instances when Beijing brought the disputed maritime issues to fore. Issue of territorial sovereignty of Diaoyu –an uninhabited tract of five islands – marked as inherent territory by both Japan and China has taken a militaristic hue in South China Sea.”

The onset of 2008 Beijing Olympics has cemented Chinese reputation as one of the serious contenders in world politics. Since then, China is expanding control in Asia. In the South East China Sea, Beijing is toeing an expansive definition of its exclusive economic and maritime zone of control much to the chagrin of the surrounding nation states. The last seven years are marked with instances when Beijing brought the disputed maritime issues to fore. Issue of territorial sovereignty of Diaoyu –an uninhabited tract of five islands – marked as inherent territory by both Japan and China has taken a militaristic hue in South China Sea. Occasional challenge to China’s claim on this issue by the US is primarily due to the mutual security cooperation pact drawn with Japan. The mutual acrimony fuelled by vested interests took an ugly turn when the United States bombers violated the newly established Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) declared by China over Diaoyu in November 2013.

The incumbent American led power structure is currently out of tune with the practice of dealing with independent power centres. Neo-conservative mentality which did not account for the realist aspects of global power politics resulted in strategic blunders of greater magnitude. The underlying political tensions aforementioned are ripping apart the status quo in tandem with socio-economic threats. Thereby, the displacement of formerly indispensable western order glued together under the leadership of US has become a possible reality. A multipolar balance of power is the order of the 21st century.

Talha Ibraheem
Talha Ibrahim heads the Research Division. His areas of expertise are Counter-Militancy, International Security and Geo-politics of Asia and Middle East. His work on the non-state actors has been incorporated in the discourses of notable militancy scholars. Talha is accredited in Conflict Analysis from the United States Institute of Peace and Terrorism Studies from the University of Maryland.

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