Monthly Global Forecast | august 2021

Politics and Governance

The US to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan by August End.

US President Joe Biden announced that the US military would withdraw from Afghanistan by August 31, while dismissing rising concerns of a civil war erupting in the country that the US has occupied since 2001. After the al-Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington in2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan. The United States has pulled roughly 3,500 remaining troops in a 90 percent complete process, according to the US military, while the Taliban is alleged to be posing an “existential threat” to Afghan forces.

Ebrahim Raisi will not assume his role as a president until August 2021.

President Ebrahim Raisi will be in office until August 2021. Raisi, the head of Iran’s judiciary, was voted as the country’s next president in a pivotal election in June 2021. Raisi has been mentioned as a possible successor to Khamenei, who is 82 years old. Raisi’s election is expected to help facilitate talks between the US and Iran, but it may also present some challenges. Currently, the United States is being accused of betrayal for its violation of an agreement and treaty that it withdrew from during Trump’s presidency.

Venezuelan President aims a Dialogue with Opposition in August.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has expressed his willingness to meet with the country’s political opposition in Mexico next month. In May the opposition changed strategy and indicated its willingness to return to negotiations to resolve the political crisis in OPEC member Venezuela. Since taking office in2013, Maduro has presided over an economic collapse in once-prosperous Venezuela, and his domestic opponents, as well as the United States and the European Union, have accused him of corruption, human rights violations, and rigging his 2018 re-election.

Defence and Security

India has Extended Emergency Powers of its Armed Forces till August 31.

The Defence Ministry of India has granted yet another extension of the emergency powers till August 31, 2021. These powers were accorded to the Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force last year, for emergent revenue procurements and works, amid the stand-off with China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. Following the clash in the Galwam Valley in June last year, the Defence Ministry of India granted the armed forces emergency capital procurement powers for the first time, allowing them to procure weapon systems worth up to Rs 300 crore on a short-term basis. Capital procurement powers cover the purchase of capital assets, weapons/weapon systems, and other operationally critical equipment that results in long-term improvements.

Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan will conduct a joint drill near the Afghan border in August.

Afghanistan’s two neighbors Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to hold a joint drill along with Russia close to the Afghan border next month. According to a source from Russia’s Central Military District, the practice would take place in the Kharb-Maidon training area, which is 20 kilometers from the Afghan border. The maneuvers will bring together 1,500 troops from the three countries on August 5 for a 5-day training exercise. The simulation will also focus on tactical measures, reconnaissance/fire, and reconnaissance/strike to disrupt and eradicate an invasion by prohibited armed organizations, according to the release.

Trade and Economics

Construction of Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway under CPEC to commence from August.

In August 2021, work on the Sukkur-Hyderabad Motorway will begin. The new roadways and motorways, according to Gwadar Pro, are now being built under the Public-Private Partnership Policy. A meeting of Ecnec in May this year, presided over by Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin through video link, approved the construction of the 306km Hyderabad-Sukkur six-lane-divided, fenced motorway on a build, operate, and transfer (BOT) basis at a revised cost of Rs191.471bn. More so, it has a design speed of 120 km/hour, 89 bridges, 15 interchanges, and 243 underpasses will

Digital Policy of Pakistan is likely to launch in August.

The Digital Pakistan Policy (DPP) 2021 is expected to be launched by the end of August 2021, envisaging providing the necessary elements to tap the digital global market, economic growth, and citizen empowerment. This was mentioned by Syed Junaid Imam, Member Information Technology (IT) of the Ministry of Information Technology and Telecommunications, during a two-day consultative conference on the Digital Pakistan Policy (DPP) 2021. The IT ministry and Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL) had also signed two additional agreements earlier this year for the installation of fiber optic cable that would allow for the supply of fast internet in various districts of Sindh.

G20 Digital Economy Ministerial Meeting is scheduled for August 5-6.

The G20 Digital Economy Ministers’ Meeting 2021 is one of the ministerial meetings that will take place in conjunction with the G20 Leaders Summit 2021, which will be hosted by Italy in October 2021. People, Planet, and Prosperity will be the three broad, interconnected pillars of action. Within these pillars, the G20 aspires to take the lead in ensuring a rapid international response to the COVID-19 pandemic–capable of providing equitable, global access to diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines–while also strengthening resilience to future health-related shocks. These meetings are crucial for discussing and developing topics of worldwide importance, as well as for creating consensus on certain shared deliverables.

Energy and Environment

OPEC+ might not meet till August.

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Abdulaziz bin Salman, has admitted that the Opec-plus coalition’s next meeting might be as early as August, as the group’s output policy has been stalled since July due to an ongoing dispute with the UAE. So far, the majority of OEC-plus members have stated that in the absence of a new agreement, they will maintain their production levels for July. The UAE alone objected to a plan that would have raised the alliance’s combined production in five monthly increments of 400,000 b/d from August, while also extending the OPEC-plus supply management pact by eight months through the end of 2022. Saudi Arabia has been similarly insistent that the two are mutually exclusive. According to sources, this made finding a compromise less urgent.

43rd Meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum is scheduled for August 27-31.

The Pacific Island Forum’s 43rd summit (PIF43) will take place from August 27 to August 31, 2012. The main pan-regional discussion forum in Oceania brings together the interests of 18 states and territories on issues such as climate change, the sustainable use of maritime resources, and regional cooperation. A Smaller Island States (SIS) Leaders’ Meeting and a Pacific African Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) Group of States Leaders’ Meeting will precede the conference. One of the group’s goals is to attract the United States and European and Asian partners to the organization’s shared interests, especially the fight against climate change. The world’s largest marine park, declared by the Cook Islands in December 2011, will also be inaugurated at this gathering.

Social Issues

Emirates and Etihad Suspend Flights from Pakistan and India till August.

Major UAE airlines Etihad and Emirates have further extended flight operations from South Asian countries due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Emirates suspends flight operations till August 7, while the Etihad flights will not be available till August 2. These travel restrictions come in the backdrop of an exponential rise of Covid-19 cases owning to the Delta variant that is spreading rampantly in both India and more recently, in Pakistan.

Accra to host the 2021 African Development Summit in August.

Accra is set to host the annual Africa Advancement Forum Global summit on August 20, 2021. The theme for this year is, ‘The Africa We Want’. This theme resonates with the unique realities of the burden of governance facing Africa due to the impact of COVID 19 and other attendant Security related challenges. The Forum also welcomes partners across disciplines and boundaries to form a synergetic think-tank aimed at proffering insights into possible solutions for advancement and policymaking.


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