Monthly Global Forecast | February 2022

Politics and Governance

European Union – African Union summit will be held from 17- 18 February 2022 in Brussels.

The event was initially planned to happen in October 2020 but was rescheduled due to the pandemic. All the information regarding the event, including the agenda, primary results, press material, photos, videos, live broadcasting, and other documentation will be shared publicly a week before the meeting and some after the event.

The Centenary of Egyptian independence will happen on 28 February 2022.

The discovery of the tomb of Tutankhamun was a significant event in the long-celebrated history of Egypt. On 28 February 2022, it will be 100 years since this major discovery. Furthermore, it will be 200 years since Jean-Francois Champollion disclosed his advances in the decipherment of the Rosetta Stone, which provided the basis for understanding ancient Egyptian symbols. The setting-off of these two major events in one day calls for an international celebration. However, along with these events, is also the semi-independence of Egypt from the British rule in 1922, another anniversary. The Egypt Exploration Society will further explore these events considering their role in the history of Egypt and the field of Egyptology. A series of events, exhibitions and visits will be a part of this agenda.

Secret Ballot will elect a new president of Italy after the step down of the current president on 3 February 2022.

The vote casting for the new president will start from 24 January 2022, and 1000+ lawmakers and regional delegates will take part in the process. To win the seven-year mandate, it will require a two-third majority in the first three rounds of voting and in the fourth round, an absolute majority will suffice. It is rare to elect the new president in the first round. The current president, Berlusconi, was unable to gather any support and backed off suggesting it to be “in the spirit of national responsibility”. Although no names have been finalised for candidature, Mario Draghi, Vittorio Colao, Pier Ferdinando Casini, Marta Cartabia and Giuliano Amato are expected to be the best candidate for the election.

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election will be held from 10 February to 7 March 2022.

These elections are said to be a major testing ground for all the political parties. The polls will start on 10 February to elect 403 members for the Legislative Assembly. It will have 10 phases with the counting happening on 10 March. The term of the current government will end in May. The last time the elections were held in 2017, the BJP came out as a successful party, winning a majority of votes, 312 out of 403 seats. The parties participating in these elections are the BJP, Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Samajwadi Party, while AIMIM, RLD, SBSP and Apna Dal are forming alliance to compete.

Defence and Security

The First International Conference on Nuclear Law by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which was set to be held from 7-11 February 2022, has been postponed.

The new date for the event is 25-29 April 2022. The nuclear sector revolves around nuclear law, which constitutes international treaties, agreements, nuclear proliferation commitments and compensation after any nuclear damage. The field is always expanding with new technologies, and therefore responsibilities are also increasing which adhere to accommodate new developments that include small modular reactors (SMRs) and other technologies. With all the advancements, it is becoming necessary to address new challenges like climate change. The event provides a platform for experts from concerned departments, government, NGOs, academia and other sectors to discuss nuclear law and share their experience on it. The Director-General, Mariano Grossi of IAEA, announced in the opening announcement at the meeting of Board Governors that “Nuclear law is an essential prerequisite for the safe, secure and peaceful uses of nuclear technology and its applications. This Conference, the first of its kind for the Agency, is an important opportunity for us to take stock and discuss nuclear law for the future.” The event will include an opening session, a series of topical sessions, a Round-table discussion followed by a closing session. It has opened for submission of essays for young career professionals and students. The deadline for submission is 15 November 2022. The winning participants will have the chance to present their essays.

Munich Security Conference will be held from 18-20 February 2022.

It will be the 58th conference and will include limited guests, small delegations and media representatives to avoid any health or safety concerns. The event will introduce many innovative participatory set-ups along with the traditional activities. The focus will remain on more participation and interactions among the attendees. While discussing the event, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, said, “Our world is in danger. Traditional certainties are crumbling, threats and vulnerabilities are multiplying, and the rules-based order is increasingly under attack. The need for dialogue has never been greater.

Energy and Environment

African Union Summit will be held from 17-18 February 2022.

Along with many pressing issues the continent is facing, the most important one would be the crisis in Ethiopia. It will be a testing ground for the AU to find a peaceful solution to this problem. Other issues include; the decline of democratic governments, the threat of terrorism, and the challenges of Climate change. The summit will elect 15 new members of the Peace and Security Council, which includes five positions for a three-year term and 10 positions for a two-year term. Member countries will present a list of candidates. It will also decide upon the AU-Peace Fund, which has over US$230 million funds, and how the members will manage this fund in a better way.

The 55th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 55) and Working Group II (WGII) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Approval Plenary (WGII-12) will happen from 14- 18 February 2022.

The session will highlight and approve the role of the Working Group II and Assessment Report 6, which works on the impacts of climate change, vulnerability and adaptations. This is the sixth assessment cycle of the IPCC. During all the cycles, “the Panel will have produced a Methodology Report to refine the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories, and three special reports: the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) released in October 2018; the Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) issued in August 2019; and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) released in September 2019.”

Trade and Economics

Mobile World Congress Barcelona will be held from 28 February to 5 March 2022.

The event is considered the most significant in the connectivity industry. Individuals from world-leading companies and entrepreneurs attend this event and share the future and latest developments of connectivity. It provides a huge platform to meet and share the ideas of the giants of the mobile and tech industry. The attendees of this event include mobile operators, device makers, technology providers, merchants and influencers. The themes of this year event are CloudNet, 5G Connect, Internet of Everything, Fintech, Tech Horizon and Advancing AI.

The UN Economic and Social Council’s (ECOSOC) Partnership Forum will take place on 2 February 2022.

The council will discuss innovative ways to discuss and promote partnerships based on sustainable development and the 17 SDGs. The event focuses on “building back better from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) while advancing the full implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.” Individuals belonging to diverse backgrounds, including government sectors, United Nations, IMF, local governments, scientists, students and academics, will participate. The attendees will present policies to control the COVID-19 and how to achieve the SDGs.

Social Issues

The Winter Olympics are set to happen from 4- 20 February 2021.

The event will start with an opening ceremony on 4th February and will be live broadcasted throughout. The Tokyo Summer Games 2020 were postponed till 2021 in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the new variant of Covid-19, Omicron, has made this year’s Olympics controversial, with the Biden administration boycotting the event. This means that no government officials from the US will attend the event, but the players will be independent to make their own decisions. China is hosting the event for the first time, yet it has already astounded the world with the opening ceremony of the Summer Olympics in 2008. The preparations for the event are already in action with covid-19 severe precautions. Every individual, from the workers to the athletes, will be quarantined for three weeks with frequent testing and restricted movements allowed. Only a handful of spectators, mainly from China, will be allowed to watch the games in the stadium.

The launch of the Artemis 1 by NASA expected to happen between 12 to 27 February 2022 is postponed until Spring.

Nasa expected to launch this test by the end of the year 2021 with astronauts on-ground by 2024, but the schedule has interfered. It was scheduled to be launched after the final test, “wet dress rehearsal”, in January, but due to some technical issues in the engine, it is further postponed until March -April 2022. NASA officials, in a statement, stated that “NASA is developing a plan and updated schedule to replace the engine controller while continuing integrated testing and reviewing launch opportunities in March and April.” It will be an uncrewed mission with a massive Space Launch System (SLS) around the moon.

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