Monthly Global Forecast |July 2020

Defence and Security

Canada Delays Fighter Jet Bid Deadline to July

The Canadian government has delayed the bid deadline for its CF-18 fighter replacement programme by one month.  The move extends the deadline to July 31, 2020.   Bids were originally due May 2019. Previously, the deadline was once pushed back to March 30, and then delayed again to June 30.

The United States House Armed Services Committee Schedules Defence Policy Bill Markup on July 1

The US House Armed Services Committee announced its markup schedule for the “FY21 Defense Authorization Bill.”  The full committee markup is scheduled for Wednesday, July 1. The markup process is running slightly behind the schedule due to the pandemic.  Lawmakers have said they hope to pass the “defense policy bill” this year, despite the delays.  However, national protests over racial issues have spawned a new debate on the use of domestic military force that could potentially stall legislative negotiations.

Politics and Governance

Israel’s Potential Annexation of Parts of the West Bank

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu currently plans to annex just a small portion of the West Bank territory on July 1, the land occupied by over 100 Jewish settlements. Netanyahu, who has opposed a Palestinian state during most of his career, sees annexation as a way to safeguard Israel’s control over parts of the West Bank, which much of the Israeli right views as Israel’s historical heartland. If the prime minister has his way, he would immediately try to annex the land that Israel was allotted under the Trump administration’s Middle East Peace Proposal in January. The land is approximately 30% of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley. He could put the idea up for a vote either in parliament or his own cabinet, according to the coalition agreement.

German Presidency of the Council of the European Union Begins on July 1

On July 1, Germany will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU). This means that, from July to December 2020, Germany will chair the meetings of the EU Council and will be responsible for taking EU legislation forward. The core task of the German EU Council Presidency will be to make mobility in Europe more modern, more innovative and more sustainable, and to learn lessons from COVID-19.

Social Issues

American Airlines to Start Booking Flights to Capacity in July, Eliminating Social Distancing

After first limiting the number of people on flights in April, owing to the pandemic, American Airlines announced it will soon be ditching its effort to promote social distancing on planes. Starting July 1, as more people travel, the airline company will start booking flights to capacity. It will also ask customers to certify that they haven’t had COVID-19 symptoms for the previous 14 days.

Energy and Environment

Summit on Global Green Recovery from COVID-19 Crisis

The International Energy Agency will host an online summit for the world’s biggest economies as well as developing countries that cover 80% of global emissions. It aims to set out plans for boosting renewable energy, energy efficiency and other emissions-cutting projects that would generate tens of millions of “shovel-ready” green jobs around the world, to replace those lost in the pandemic.

OPEC+ Agrees to Further Extend Production Cut

The OPEC+ coalition agreed to extend their 9.7 million b/d production cut through July, rather than reducing the cut to 7.7 million b/d at the end of June as previously agreed. The coalition members, principally Iraq and Nigeria, who did not implement 100% of their allocated production cuts in May and June will have to make extra reductions from July to September, to compensate for their overproduction.

Trade and Economics

High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development 2020

The UN Economic and Social Council will convene the 2020 session of the High-level Political Forum (HLPF) from 7 July to 16 July. Following the first five-days, the HLPF’s three-day ministerial segment takes place jointly with ECOSOC’s high-level segment from Tuesday-Thursday, 14-16 July 2020. The ECOSOC high-level segment concludes on 17 July 2020.


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