Monthly Global Forecast | May 2022
Politics and Governance
South Korea’s New Government to Improve Ties with the US
South Korea’s newly elected President Yoon Suk-yeol from the People Power Party (PPP) says he will be focusing on a sterner policy towards North Korea and strengthening his country’s trilateral security cooperation with Tokyo and Washington. Under the conservative party, South Korea will be leaning more towards the US. Following this, President Biden is scheduled to visit both South Korea and Japan from 20 to 24 May. This will be the President’s first trip to the region since the beginning of his term. The US will be stressing an open and free Indo-Pacific. This a commitment that is expected to be reciprocated by President Yoon, who has stated that he will be focusing on upholding the constitution during his term and focusing on a progressive South Korea relying on national unity and providing welfare to the people, two neglected areas which have negatively impacted the country.
The Prime Minister of India Scheduled to visit Denmark, Germany and France
PM Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Denmark, Germany and France from 2 to 4 May for his first visit abroad this year. In Denmark, the focus will be on the 2nd India-Nordic Summit. The Indian PM is expected to talk with several of his Nordic counterparts during this summit. In Germany, the India-Germany Inter-Governmental Consultations (IGC) are expected to be the focus of talks between the Indian PM and his German counterpart. Matters of strategic partnership will also be discussed in his stop-over in Paris towards the conclusion of the visits.
Defence and Security
NATO Parliamentary Session to take place in Vilnius next month
Previously scheduled for Kyiv, NATO’s parliamentary session will now be held in Vilnius from 27-30 May 2022. It is expected that this session will also benefit Lithuania by enabling it to strengthen the eastern flank of NATO and by bringing the issue of the war in Ukraine to the table. The session, which had previously been pushed ahead due to the COVID pandemic, was expected at first to be held in Kyiv. However, due to the ongoing Ukraine crisis, Vilnius is believed to be a more suitable venue. It is likely that the issue of Russia will remain at the forefront during the seminar.
Demonstration on Augmented Reality Combat Vehicles to be held in Germany
The Cooperative Demonstration of Technology (AVT-334) is expected to be held on 4 May in Germany. It will focus on enhancing situation awareness for the crew in combat vehicles. The possibility of design and integration of such augmented reality in combat vehicles has been enabled by the Fraunhofer FKIE, in cooperation with the WTD 91, BAAINBw and Rheinmetall, in a study ESAR. This collaboration will be open to Ukraine, Japan, Finland, Australia and NATO, among others. The demonstration is expected to open avenues for research and operation in the design and integration of augmented reality within combat vehicles.
Energy and Environment
International Conference on Sustainability, Energy and Environment to be held in Spain on 26-27 May
The International Conference on Sustainability, Energy and Environment, bringing together diverse scholars, scientists and researchers to address issues and research related to sustainability, energy and environment, will be held in Spain on 26-27 May 2022. It will bring together expert knowledge and address the recent concerns, trends and innovations in the stated areas. The conference will be dedicated to creating and sharing knowledge important for the protection and safety of the global environment by helping the production and publication of high-impact studies in the relevant fields.
The International Conference on Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Cities to be held on 12 May
The conference is expected to address the current and upcoming urban challenges related to food, water and energy. A team of experts is scheduled to meet in the Netherlands during three phases of round table talks and deliberate on the issues of interdependencies between food, water and energy security in urban areas. The 12 May conference will work towards coming up with comprehensive plans to address the various WEF-nexus related topics. It also falls in line with the broader agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals. It aims to design integrated knowledge and response to the WEF security challenges to meet the criteria for sustainable development.
Trade and Economics
14 May 2022 to Be Observed As World Fair Trade Day
The World Fair Trade Day is expected to be held on 14 May 2022. This global event will highlight the achievements and objectives of the Fair Trade Movement. The event will focus on objectives such as shedding light on the plight of small scale producers, especially those belonging to developing economies. It will prioritise highlighting the malpractices of forced and child labour, in addition to drawing attention to transparency and accountability. As part of the ongoing effort by the World Fair Trade Organization, the event will also stress building back fairer to hasten recovery from the debilitating effects of COVID and promote its original objectives.
Dollar to Rupee exchange rate to rise between 181.9-187.5 in May
The dollar to rupee exchange rate is to rise between 181.9-187.5 this May. Fitch Ratings predicts that the average rate of the rupee will rise to approximately 180 as opposed to an earlier prediction of 165. The Pakistani rupee has been dubbed the worst-performing currency in Asia. State Bank of Pakistan also indicated earlier that the US dollar would be appreciating sharply against the Pakistani rupee. This prediction has come with Pakistan’s worsening trade terms and tightening of the US monetary policy. The country’s current account deficit is also a contributing factor. Another contributing factor is the flow of the US dollar into neighbouring Afghanistan.
UNDP Oslo Governance Centre to hold a conference on Power, Politics & Peace on 31 May 2022
The UNDP Oslo Governance Centre is expected to hold a hybrid conference titled “Power, Politics & Peace” on several important issues facing the world today. This conference is scheduled to be held on 31 May 2022. Central issues will include the emergence of a global governance crisis, the question of combatting rising information pollution, the global effects of the war in Ukraine, and how to build more transparent and trustworthy governance systems. This conference will focus on facing the emerging crisis of governance on the global level and help consolidate ideas and opinions from a wide variety of stakeholders.
International Community Expected to Focus on Closing Vaccine Gap by May
There will be increased stress on closing the vaccine equity gaps in the most vulnerable areas by the international community by mid-2022. Efforts are also expected to be directed at reaching those neglected populations which have been displaced or are living in areas under the control of non-state actors. The release of the “Strategy to Achieve Global COVID-19 Vaccination by Mid-2022”, by the World Health Organisation (WHO) is expected to show results in May. It is expected to progress on its target of reaching 70 per cent of total population coverage by May this year. Despite the several other issues demanding international attention, there will be greater stress on improving COVAX measures. Renewed efforts will be guided towards enhancing collective preparedness, prevention and response to any similar health threats similar to COVID-19 arising in the future.