Monthly Global Forecast | September 2021

Politics and Governance

Taliban has warned Turkey not to keep its troops in Afghanistan beyond September.

The Taliban have already cautioned Turkey to evacuate its troops from Afghanistan by past September 2021. The Taliban have been reluctant to an extension of the withdrawal deadline, i.e., August 31, 2021. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to have accepted the realities of the Taliban takeover and is keen to hold talks with the Taliban. Turkey, though a NATO member, has never engaged in Afghanistan militarily, stating its main objective for bringing a political solution to the Afghan crisis. Due to this, Turkey is expected to use its diplomatic ties to pressure the Taliban for airlift extension through its allies, Qatar, and Pakistan.

Canada is likely to hold a snap election on September 20.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada is calling a snap election for September 20, 2021, to win public support for the government’s expansive COVID-19-fighting measures. Trudeau’s administration is a minority government; therefore, he needs to rely on other parties to get legislation passed. Trudeau won a majority of the 338 members in the House of Commons in 2015, but he was reduced to a minority of 157 seats in 2019. If Trudeau succeeds in gaining enough seats in parliament, the Liberals will have four more years to implement a plan that prioritizes recovery spending, climate change, and social and health programs.

Defence and Security

An Indo-Kazakhstan joint training exercise to commence to be held in September.

The Indian army will be a part of a military exercise with Kazakhstan from 30 August 2021 to 11 September 2021. As part of military diplomacy and to strengthen the growing strategic relation with Kazakhstan, the 5th edition of Indo- Kazakhstan Joint Training Exercise, “KAZIND-21” will be conducted. The exercise is a joint training between both the Armies, which will boost the bilateral relations between India and Kazakhstan. The exercise will strengthen confidence, interoperability and enable sharing of best practices between the Armed Forces of India and Kazakhstan.

Europe to host one of the biggest defense trade shows on September 7-10

The 29th International Defence Industry Exhibition Miedzynarodowy Salon Przemyslu Obronnego (MSPO) in Poland aims to be one of Europe’s most prominent military shows held for 29 years. Almost 300 businesses from Poland and abroad have already registered for the event, which will take up approximately 20,000 square meters of display space. The exhibition will bring together the most significant military players in the military sector including United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, Norway, Italy, and Ukraine. For years, MSPO has also served as a hub for critical relationships aimed at improving global defense, safety, and security. The expo meetings frequently result in multi-million-dollar contracts being signed.

Trade and Economics

Pakistan and Ukraine will inaugurate Joint Economic Commission in September.

The combined economic committee of Ukraine and Pakistan will convene for the first time in history. For the period March 2020 to June 2021, Ukraine is among the top 20 greatest exporters to Pakistan. Although the Joint Ukrainian-Pakistani Commission on Economic Cooperation was created in 2012, it has yet to hold its first meeting. Ukraine is ready to expand exports, particularly with Pakistan, and to expand commerce with other nations in the area.

IMF loan program for Pakistan is scheduled for September.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to renew Pakistan’s previous $6 billion loan program in September to establish a middle ground amid rising energy costs and tax collection. The negotiations will be held for the seventh review based on June 2021 performance criteria. If accepted, the tranche under the seventh review would be $0.7 billion. The IMF is likely to be encouraged by tax collection in July 2021, which was 22% more than the forecast for the month and increased by 36% year over year to Rs410 billion. The government has also revealed intentions to cut power subsidies for lifeline customers and shift to a direct cash payment, which might help to minimize future cyclical debt buildup.

Energy and Environment

US Envoy for Climate will be visiting China in September.

US Climate Representative John F. Kerry is expected to visit China in September to continue the efforts for the expansion of US-China sustainable energy collaboration. The former Secretary of State’s visit would be his second, as he has spearheaded US efforts to persuade the international community regarding the seriousness of climate change and encourage them to speed up measures to reduce carbon emissions.

CPEC power division is scheduled to be operationalized from September 1st.

The construction of a large-scale LNG terminal through a pipeline network at the Gwadar Port will begin on September 1, 2021. About 40% of China’s gas is transported through pipelines. The power Division has been ordered to guarantee that adequate power is available for the 660 KV HVDC Matari-Lahore Transmission Line to be operational on September 1, 2021. During the testing phase, the CPEC committee also instructed National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) to finalize the project’s tariff.

Social Issues

Pakistan’s Government aiming to start a zero-hunger program in the month of September.

The Federal Minister for National Food Security & Research desired a fruitful summit in September 2021. Earlier in 2018 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) aimed to set a target for Zero Hunger World by 2030. Under the UN Food System Summit initiative, the Ministry intends to launch a National Zero Hunger Program to achieve objectives such as stabilizing food costs, boosting climate-wise and precision agriculture, and expanding social protection. The government will provide an enabling and peaceful climate in which all stakeholders may participate in the development of Pakistan’s food systems.

Canada has extended its ban on flights to India until September.

Canada’s restriction on direct passenger flights from India has been extended until September 21, 2021, due to hazards posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier when the second COVID-19 wave reached India in April, Canada halted all direct flights to and from India. The reopening date has been pushed forward several times. This ban poses a hurdle for overseas students from India because many institutions throughout Canada intend to resume in-person sessions this fall.

Millions of Americans become unemployed due to the pandemic in September.

Additional federal unemployment benefits in America are all set to expire on September 6. around 9 million employees have relied on pandemic era unemployment benefits. The program was first implemented in March 2020 under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARE). The program compensated around 11.4 million individuals preventing them from slipping down the “benefits cliff.” But now according to the state officials over the previous three months, an average of 832,000 jobs have been created, decreasing the unemployment rate from 6.3 to 5.4 percent.


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