Monthly Global Forecast | October 2021
Politics and Governance
The FATF plenary meetings will start from October 17-22, 2021.
The FATF plenary meetings are scheduled from October 17 to October 22, 2021. The meeting is crucial for Pakistan as it will decide whether Pakistan will remain on the grey list. The last meeting in June 2021 put some additional conditions on Pakistan to meet, and the watchdog will decide whether those conditions were met. The FATF retained Pakistan on the grey list despite that fact that it met 26 out of 27 conditions and added new six-points to keep Pakistan under pressure to further its endeavors in controlling terrorist financing and money laundering. According to some reports, Pakistan has made a significant progress and is rated compliant and largely compliant with 31 out of 40 recommendations and non-compliant in just two recommendations pertaining to mutual legal assistance (MLAs).
Qatar is set to hold the first historic legislative elections on October 2, 2021.
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the ruling emir of Qatar, has announced that the first legislative elections for advisory Shura Council will be conducted on October 2, 2021. The Shura will consist of 45 seats; the Qatari citizens would elect 30 members while 15 will be appointed by the emir, before all the members were chosen by the emir. It will have the power to exercise legislation and approve policies and the budget of the state. It will also have limited control over the executives. It will be the first Shura in the gulf monarchy who will have the power to question ministers and amend laws. However, the ultimate decision-making still remains with the emir.
Uzbekistan presidential elections are set to happen on October 24, 2021.
The campaign is set to elect the next president. The candidates who are picked by political parties will run while independent candidates will be excluded. The parties that will suggest names for presidential run are; the Uzbekistan National Revival Democratic Party, the People’s Democratic party, Uzbekistan Liberal Party, the Justice Social Democratic Party, and the Ecological Party of Uzbekistan. Two other parties; the Liberty Democratic Party and the Truth and Progress Social Democratic Party were not registered due to their divergent views set by the government. The president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, will run for the second term and is expected to win.
Defence and Security
The 9th Annual Military flight training conference will be virtually held on October 4-5, 2021.
The SMi group in London, announced that the 9th annual Military Conference will be held virtually due to COVID-19 from October 4 to October 5 2021. The aim of the conference will be to discuss the latest advancements in rotary, fast jet and fixed wing training and will focus on pilot development and advancement in technology in different training programs. Keeping in view the recent challenges and threat in air operation, it will discuss the possibility of advance flight training and preparations to handle any emerging dynamic operational situation. It will provide great opportunity for flight training professionals to share their experience and suggest ways to improve their skills and be ready for any threat. The training will include fast-jet training, fixed-wing training, Synthetic and live training, Pilot retention and attrition training along with others.
Bahrain International Defence Exhibition and Conference (BIDEC) will happen on October 25-27, 2021.
The third edition of the conference will be held under the patronage of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa at Bahrain International Exhibition and Convention Center. BIDEC is supported by the Bahrain Defence Force and presents a great opportunity to exhibit the latest technologies, hardware and equipment related to military to influential audience who are linked with procurement and operational directorates from all over Middle East region.
Energy and Environment
Biodiversity summit is rescheduled from October 11 to October 24, 2021.
The Biodiversity Summit will take place in Kunming, China. It was initially scheduled for October 2020 but was delayed until May 2021 due to the pandemic. The summit will discuss the rising challenges due to climate and would conclude a global treaty pertaining to the protection of nature under the 2015 Paris Agreement. 200 countries will pledge to take serious action to tackle the disastrous threat posed by climate change. The Nature Conservancy, a non-profit organisation, stated that by 2050, 30% to 50% of land and ocean could be lost resulting in the extinction of majority species. Pollinators like bees and butterflies are also under threat. If lost, it could impact agricultural production and potentially cause a loss in its annual growth worth 217 billion dollars. The summit will also discuss the economic threats of climate change and work to protect the land from extractions by banning commercial activities and restore forests to slow down the extinction of different species.
The Second United Nations Global Sustainable Transport Conference will take place from October 14 to October 16, 2021.
Initially, it was scheduled to be held from May 5 to May 7, 2020, in Beijing, China but was rescheduled later due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs (DESA) will conduct the conference by bringing together important actors from the private and government sectors, different organisations, and individuals to discuss the possibilities of achieving sustainable transportation. It will continue the discussion on the first Global Sustainable Transport which was held in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, in 2016. It is expected to assist in reaching the goals discussed in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, particularly SDGs (directly connected to sustainable transport through indicators and targets) SDG3, (concerning with health and wellbeing and deaths due to road traffic accidents), and SDG11 (providing access to affordable, safe and sustainable transport system).
World cities day is set to be celebrated on October 31, 2021.
The United Nations General Assembly marked October 31 as World Cities Day under its resolution 68/239 in 2013 and was held for the first time on October 31, 2014. Throughout the month, the UN-Habitat and its partners organise different activities, events, and discussions on urban sustainability. All these activities of “Urban October” usually end by October 31. Following the legacy of the Expo 2010 Shanghai China, the day promotes cooperation among different countries to address the challenges of urbanisation and promote sustainable urban development. The theme of the day is “Better City, Better Life,” but different subthemes are selected each year to address the challenges and celebrate the achievements of urbanisation.
Trade and Economics
The 4th G20 Finance Ministers and Central banks Governors Meeting will be held on Oct 30 2021.
This Meeting is an integral part of the G20 Leaders’ Summit 2021 and will be held in Italy on October 30, 2021. The main focus of the meeting will be on People, Planet and Prosperity. It will take the lead to ensure the necessary response to the COVID-19 pandemic- equitable access to vaccines- and to devise ways to avoid future health related calamities. The G20 consists of 19 countries; China, India, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Japan, Australia, France, Italy, Indonesia, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, South Africa, the US, Turkey and the UK. Different ministerial meetings are arranged, international concerns are discussed, and consensus is built on tackling shared problems. Ministerial meetings are also held where head of state and government discuss the achievements of ministers on different issues.
Expo Dubai 2020 will start from October 1 2021 to March 31 2022 in the Dubai South District.
The event is expected to bring together the greatest minds from around the world to collaborate and innovate ideas that can help build a sustainable future. With the commitment to sustainability and creativity, it also promises inclusivity. The expo will include participants from more than 191 countries. It will continue for 182 consecutive days and will present striking scenes, diverse rhythms, and exotic flavors from around the globe. Following the theme of “Connecting Minds, Creating The Future,” it will offer more than 200 platforms for performers, restaurants for food-lovers, and more than 60 daily shows for a global audience.
England will change the rules of international travel on October 4, 2021.
The UK would ease travel restrictions on British travelers from October 4, 2021. The UK is set to replace its current traffic light system of ‘red’, ‘amber’ and ‘green countries’ to just a single list of ‘red’ countries. The red list would include countries would continue to follow the restrictions, to ensure public health security, from the UK government. While the travel restrictions would ease for the rest of the world. As a result, vaccinated travelers would no longer need to take the PDT (Prior to Departure Test) when traveling to the UK from October 4. Moreover, vaccinated travelers with an approved vaccine would be able to exchange their day 2 test with a much cheaper lateral flow test, reducing the cost of tests on arrival.
WHO Regional Committee for the Eastern Mediterranean will conduct its 68th session on 11 October 2021.
Due to the pandemic, it will be held online and the agendas for the year will be discussed. The agenda for this year session includes; a plan of action pertaining to health emergency – preparedness and response, a regional strategy for integrated disease surveillance – countering data fragmentation in the region, promoting better health in communities, and addressing diabetes as a health challenge in the region. It will also include discussion on other health issues including; mental health, and crisis due to climate change and discuss strategies to overcome them. It will also review the progress of different developments.