Weekly Global Newscast |November 19 - December 2, 2018, 2018

Asia

Pakistan Rupee Hits Record Low Against US Dollar

Pakistan rupee plunged by five per cent unit past week. It is the second time that the economy has suffered a blow under the recently elected government. Where the state ministers consider the striking decreases in the value of rupee as something inevitable and that was bound to happen no matter what. Economists suggest that perhaps this decrease is to help Pakistan improve the status of its balance of payments. Regardless, the government, in particular the finance ministry is facing a great deal of backlash from the opposition on the grounds of not having a progressive economic plan.

Analysis

‘Pakistan’s currency plunged as much as 5 per cent on Friday in what traders suspect was a devaluation of the currency amid rescue talks with the IMF. The currency traded as weak as 141 rupees to the US dollar, from Thursday’s closing level of 133.9, according to Refinitiv data.” The IMF’s main demands [for a new loan] included a devaluation of the rupee,” a central bank official in Karachi told the Financial Times. The rupee has tumbled about a fifth since the end of last year in a series of devaluations to avoid a balance of payments crisis. Muhammad Suhail of Karachi’s Topline Securities said the ”devaluation” on Friday was “most likely meant to satisfy the IMF.” An IMF delegation visited Pakistan earlier this month but left without an agreement on a new loan expected to be worth at least $7bn. The two sides are expected to meet by mid-January for further discussions. Abid Sulehri, head of the Islamabad based Sustainable Development Policy Institute who has advised prime minister Imran Khan’s government on economic issues told the FT Friday’s devaluation was aimed at “stabilising Pakistan’s balance of payments situation. The current account deficit has to managed”.’ Farhan Bokhari writes for The Financial Times.

‘The unit sank to Rs. 143 against the U.S. dollar just a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government celebrated 100 days in office with a televised conference boasting of its achievements. The State Bank of Pakistan has indirectly devalued the state-managed unit several times already as it tries to narrow a huge balance of payments deficit. But traders are growing concerned that neither Khan nor his Finance Minister Asad Umar laid out a comprehensive plan to address the country’s economic woes more than a week after negotiations with the International Monetary Fund ended without a much-needed bailout agreement. The former cricketer has launched a highly publicized austerity drive since being sworn in, including auctioning off government-owned luxury vehicles and buffaloes, in addition to seeking loans from “friendly countries” and making overtures to the IMF. “The market was disappointed to see that there was no clear cut direction of the government regarding raising loans from IMF or taxation policies for the rest of its term,” said Hamad Iqbal, director of research at Elixir Securities. The rupee has lost about a third of its value since the start of the year as Pakistan struggles with chronic inflation as it burns through its dwindling foreign currency reserves, which are down around 40 percent this year.’ Rizwan Tabassum writes for Newsweek.

‘Prime Minister Imran Khan addressing an audience on Thursday said that investors were coming to invest as country was put on right direction to development.  But it was not reflected in the currency market and dollar rose by Rs 10 in open market and was trading at highest Rs 144 at one point before rupee wobbles to gain some strength.  Faisal Vada, minister for water resources, told media that black marketing was the main reason for the massive devolution.  “Black market  of dollars was on the peak when we took over and it is still on peak,” he said, adding that government measures will help rupee to regain value in coming days.  Financial analyst, Zubair Saleem said the sudden devaluation of the local currency is not a good sign for coming days for the business community particularly the importers.  “This is going to increase the import bill of the country and we might witness further devaluation of the rupee to the US dollar,” he cautioned.’ Reported the Economic Times.
‘The rupee suffered another sharp devaluation in the interbank market on Friday, dropping to its lowest value ever against the US dollar at Rs144 before the State Bank intervened to raise its level to Rs136.5-137.5, as the finance minister denied that the sudden fall in the currency’s value was linked to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a financial bailout package. Due to volatility in intra-day trading, inter-bank rates tend to fluctuate in treasuries of different banks depending on their positions and closing rates of the rupee to a dollar were confirmed at Rs135.75-136.25 from one source, while another claimed their closing rate was Rs136.5-137.50. It merits a mention here that the major demands put forth by the IMF for the bailout include increasing general sales tax (GST) to 18 per cent, further depreciation in the rupee and a tighter monetary policy.’ Muhammad Farooq writes for Pakistan Today.

Ex-Bangladesh PM barred From Contesting This Month’s Election

Khalida Zia who has previously served as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh has been barred from contesting forthcoming elections in December. The decision came with the rejection of her nomination papers, which declared her unfit to contest the elections on the grounds of having a record of being arrested.

Analysis

‘The decision came four days after the Bangladesh High Court ruled that a person jailed for more than two years cannot contest polls, effectively ruining Khaleda Zia’s chance to participate in the December 30 polls. The candidature of jailed former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who has filed her nomination papers for the upcoming general election in the country, has been by the Election Commission due to her convictions in two graft cases. The Commission’s decision came four days after the Bangladesh High Court ruled that a person jailed for more than two years cannot contest polls, effectively ruining her chance to participate in the December 30 polls. As per election rules, a candidate declared unfit to contest polls can appeal to an EC tribunal for revised decisions or could challenge the commission decision to the High Court. Besides Khaleda Zia, the nomination of 15 high-profile candidates were also disqualified on different grounds, the spokesperson said. Khaleda Zia has been in custody since February 8, when the Dhaka Special Court convicted her in the Zia Orphanage Trust graft case and sentenced her to five years of imprisonment for embezzling 21 million Bangladeshi Taka ($252,504). On October 30, the High Court doubled her jail term to 10 years.’ Reported the NDTV.

‘The candidature of jailed former Bangladesh prime minister Khaleda Zia, who has filed her nomination papers for the upcoming general election in the country from three constituencies, has been rejected Sunday by the Election Commission due to her convictions in two graft cases. The Commission’s decision came four days after the Bangladesh High Court ruled that a person jailed for more than two years cannot contest polls, effectively ruining Zia’s chance to participate in the December 30 polls. The 73-year-old ex-premier is currently serving jail terms in two graft cases involving charities named after her slain husband Ziaur Rahman. Zia had filed nomination papers from three constituencies — two from northwestern Bogra and one from southeastern Feni, but the returning officers of the two districts scrapped her nominations as she was convicted by the court, an EC spokesperson said.’ Reported The Indian Express.

‘The elections will be held under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who is seeking to return to power for a third consecutive time amid opposition accusations that she was becoming increasingly authoritarian and the opposition was being handled with an iron fist. Bangladesh’s constitution says “a person shall be disqualified for election as, or for being, a member of parliament who has been, on conviction for a criminal offence involving moral turpitude, sentenced to imprisonment for a term of not less than two years, unless a period of five years has elapsed since his release.” Zia served as Bangladesh’s prime minister three times, twice for full five-year terms and once for a brief period.’ Reported the Al Jazeera.

Middle East & North Africa

Iran Unveils New Domestically Made Warship

The Sahand has a flight deck for helicopters, torpedo launchers, anti-aircraft and anti-ship guns, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare capabilities, state television reported.

Analysis

‘Iran’s navy launched a domestically made destroyer, which state media said has radar-evading stealth properties, amid rising tensions with the United States. In a ceremony carried live on state television on Saturday, the Sahand destroyer – which can sustain voyages lasting five months without resupply – joined Iran’s navy at a base in Bandar Abbas on the Gulf. The Sahand has a flight deck for helicopters, torpedo launchers, anti-aircraft and anti-ship guns, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare capabilities, state television reported. US President Donald Trump pulled out of an international agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme in May and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. He said the deal was flawed because it did not include curbs on Iran’s development of ballistic missiles or its support for proxies in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq.’ Reported the Al Jazeera.

‘The 1,300-ton vessel named Sahand after a mountain in northern Iran took six years to build, according to the report. TV showed a ceremony marking the inauguration with a three-gun salute at the southern port of Bandar Abbas, at the mouth of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for nearly a third of all oil traded by sea. The Sahand has a helicopter landing pad, is 96 meters (105 yards) long and can cruise at 25 knots. It is equipped with surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles as well as anti-aircraft batteries and sophisticated radar and radar evading capabilities, the report said. Since 1992, Iran has been working to build a self-sufficient military, reportedly producing its own jet fighters, tanks, missiles and light submarines as well as torpedoes. Iran added the first domestically made destroyer to its fleet in 2010 in the Persian Gulf. Reportedly Iran has five other destroyers. On Thursday, Iran’s navy announced the acquisition of two mini-submarines designed for operation in shallow waters such as the Persian Gulf, including one new sub and an overhauled one. The announcements are likely intended to boost Iran’s military image amid rising tensions with the United States, which in November re-imposed all sanctions that had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. The Trump administration pulled America out of the deal in May.’ Reported The New Arab.

Sub Saharan Africa

More Than 1.5 Million Children in CAR Need Emergency Aid

Around two-thirds of all children in the Central African Republic (CAR) need emergency aid, UNICEF has said, as it sounded alarm bells over the “neglected” crisis ravaging the country.

Analysis

‘In a report published on Friday, UNICEF said around 1.5 million children were in need of humanitarian assistance, with at least 43,000 children under the age of five “projected to face an extremely high risk of death due to severe acute malnutrition next year”.

“CAR has the world’s second-highest newborn death rate and maternal mortality ratio, fewer than three out of five children make it through primary school, and almost half the population has no access to clean water,” the report said. UNICEF’s top representative in the country, Christine Muhigana, said the plight of children “desperately needed the world’s attention.” “Children in CAR are constantly facing violence, fear, they’re recruited into armed groups, they’re living under unimaginable poverty and facing malnutrition,” she told Al Jazeera.’ Reported the Al Jazeera.

‘CAR recorded 67 attacks targeting aid workers through all of 2017, compared with 294 such incidents in the first eight-and-a-half months of this year, according to UNICEF.  Muhigana called the emergency in CAR “one of the most neglected” in the world. UNICEF’s warning follows a horrific spate of violence in the central region of Alindao. The archbishop of the capital Bangui, Cardinal Dieudonne Nzapalainga, said this week that atrocities since November 15 have included the immolation of children and the elderly. An internal UN report last week put the death toll at at least 60 after clashes between Christian militiamen, known as anti-Balaka, and the Muslim militia Union for Peace in CAR (UPC). Reported The Daily Monitor.

Europe

Over 80,000 Russian Troops in and Around Ukraine

More than 80,000 Russian soldiers are present at Ukraine’s borders and the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula, as well as the rebel-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, according to the Ukrainian president.

Analysis

‘Petro Poroshenko’s remarks on Saturday came six days after a four-year-old conflict between Kiev and Moscow deepened when Russia seized three Ukrainian military vessels and arrested 24 crew members in the Black Sea near the Kerch Strait. As he rallies for international support against Moscow, Poroshenko said Russia had about 1,400 artillery and rocket systems, 900 tanks, 2,300 armoured combat vehicles, more than 500 military planes and 300 helicopters in and around Ukraine. Russia has more than 80 Russian military ships and eight submarines in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Aegean Sea, according to Poroshenko. Igor Koziy, military expert at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, told Al Jazeera that the numbers Poroshenko gave seemed accurate if the navy and air force figures were added to the ground troops. “If you look at the organisational structure of the Russian military, you will see that there are up to 6,000 people in each brigade. They have up to three brigades in Crimea alone. “There is also navy and air force there. In the south of Russia that borders northern Ukraine, there have built up two whole military bases – three to five brigades each,” he said.  “The possibility of the Russian invasion at the moment is between 70 to 80 percent, especially during the upcoming holiday season. For three to five days, nobody in the world would care about what is going on,” said Koziy. He also said Moscow was just waiting for an excuse to justify the move.  “[President Vladimir Putin] is still not ready for a very open traditional method because there is no psychological readiness for it inside the Russian army, but it is still on the table.”’ Tamila Varshalomidze writes for Al Jazeera.

‘Asked if he might consider exchanging the captive sailors for Russians in Ukrainian detention, Putin said: “We are not considering a swap and Ukraine did not raise this issue, and it’s too early to talk about that. They are still being investigated. “We need to establish the fact that this was a provocation by the Ukrainian government and we need to put all these things on paper,” he added, arguing that the incident was part of a wider pattern of Ukrainian provocation. “The current Ukrainian leadership is not interested in resolving this at all,” Putin said. “As long as they stay in power, war will continue. Why? Because when you have provocations, such hostilities like what just happened in the Black Sea … you can always use war to justify your economic failures.” Putin gave conflicting accounts of the Kerch incident. He first alleged that the Ukrainian boats, two small gunboats and a tugboat, had been trying to cross the strait in secret, when they clashed with the Russian coastguard.’ Julian Borger writes for The Guardian.

Americas

US Navy Sends Two Ships Through Taiwan Strait, Opposing China

The United States sent two Navy ships through the Taiwan Strait, the third such operation this year as the US military increases operations in the strategic waterway despite opposition from China.

Analysis

‘The latest move comes ahead of an expected meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina on the sidelines of a G20 summit. The US Navy conducted a similar mission in the strait’s international waters in July, the first in about a year. Washington has no formal ties with Taiwan, which China claims as a “breakaway province”, but is bound by law to help the island defend itself and is its main source of arms. The Pentagon says Washington has sold Taiwan weapons valued at more than $15bn since 2010. China has been ramping up pressure to assert its sovereignty over the island. Over the weekend, Taiwan’s ruling pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party suffered heavy losses in mayoral and county elections to the China-friendly Kuomintang, which has been welcomed by Beijing. Taiwan is only one of a growing number of flashpoints in the US-China relationship, which also include a trade war, US sanctions, and China’s increasingly muscular military posture in the South China Sea.’ Reported the Al Jazeera.

‘Beijing has stepped up diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan since Tsai took office two years ago, as her government refuses to acknowledge that Taiwan is part of “one China”, unlike the government of her Beijing-friendly predecessor.  In September, Washington irked Beijing when it announced plans to sell Taiwan $330 million in spare parts for several aircraft.  Washington remains Taipei’s most powerful unofficial ally and its main arms supplier despite switching diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979.  Built in the 1980s, the two frigates were originally named USS Taylor and USS Gary and were part of a $1.8 billion US arms deal to Taiwan announced in 2015 under the administration of US president Barack Obama.  They have been renamed Ming Chuan and Feng Chia.  According to Taiwan’s navy, the warships have “high mobility, high sea resistance and low noise” and are fitted with the SQR-19 sonar system currently used by US navy.’ Reported The Economic Times.

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