On September 16 2021, the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia have made significant development to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR) by signing a security pact named AUKUS. AUKUS has initiated the debate of a potential “New Cold War” between the US alliance and China in the IPR. AUKUS is focusing on enhancing trilateral security partnerships by sharing artificial intelligence, cyber quantum and advanced naval technologies, including nuclear-powered submarines, to Australia. This deal will make Australia the seventh state to join the nuclear submarine club (including the US, UK, China, Russia, France, and India). It will provide Canberra with long-range strike capabilities such as Tomahawk Cruise Missiles, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles, Hypersonic missiles and Precision strike guided missiles. By signing AUKUS, Canberra has strained its relationship with Paris by backing out from a contract worth $90 billion with a French naval group of powered submarines. Nonetheless, the effect of this deal is not just limited to ASEAN states in the IPR or on Canberra’s diplomatic relationship with the European state, but it also inflates insecurity and arms struggle in South Asia.
AUKUS is an attempt by the US to enhance the capacity and capability of its Quad member to improve the deterrence and military might of the US and its partners in the Indo-Pacific. Although it will take Canberra a few decades and billions of dollars to get nuclear submarines built and operationalized, its effectiveness is far better than conventional power submarines as nuclear submarines could stay underwater for a longer period and have virtually unlimited range, which of course would provide Australia tactical advantage against China in IPR. AUKUS has been highly criticized by China and other ASEAN states for its Cold War mentality, as it could indulge other Indo Pacific states into the vicious cycle of a conventional and nuclear arms race. In the past five years, the US has also passed several agreements with India to enhance their military, intelligence and space cooperation to realize the US vision of “free and open” Indo-Pacific. The US and India have signed Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018, and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020. All these agreements focus on enhancing India’s armed forces strength, capacity and capability in equipment, communication, logistics, space and intelligence.
Pakistan is way behind in its maritime security and is dependent more on its alliance with China to maintain deterrence against India. However, since the inception of the US Indo-Pacific doctrine, Pakistan has become more active with regard to its maritime security and modernization.
The shift of the US towards the IPR and the formation of Quad alliance including Australia, Japan, India and the US is to maintain the balance of power by countering China’s Grand Strategy and String of Pearls policy in the Indo-Pacific. Under the Grand Strategy, China is building a massive infrastructure covering Eurasia and Africa. China has encircled India in the Indo-Pacific by creating strategic choke points in Hainan islands, the straits of Malacca and Hormuz, Pakistan, Myanmar, Srilanka, Bangladesh, Maldives and Sudan. By doing so, China has overpowered India’s maritime security in the Indian Ocean. Therefore, the US has signed multiple military agreements with Quad members to contain China’s maritime silk route.
The IPR has created new waves in international politics. The threat of a “New Cold War” in the Indo-Pacific between the US and its Quad alliance against China is not without its consequence on littoral states, especially Pakistan. India, being Pakistan’s arch-enemy, posits a great threat to Pakistan’s national security in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India is focusing on advancing its maritime security by gaining a presence on strategic naval choke points to monitor China’s movement in the IOR. India has established 12 major and 200 small ports in the IOR. Additionally, India’s strategic agreements with the US has further enhanced New Delhi’s capacity to create deterrence against China in the IOR. This, resultantly, put Pakistan at a disadvantage due to the latter’s historic rivalry with India. AUKUS, which focuses more on reducing China’s hegemonic behaviour in the South China Sea, has also put India in an advantageous position against China which would affect power dynamics in South Asia. From India’s perspective, AUKUS is in line with the security interests of New Delhi, which is to deter Chinese expansionist policies in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, the presence of the UK in the agreement reflects its clear position in the Indo-Pacific against China, which is also very encouraging for India. India already has a strategic partnership with France; the diplomatic fallout between Canberra and Australia after AUKUS might further bring Paris and New Delhi close in the IPR. In short, the ongoing development in IPR and IOR and the “Cold War” behaviour of Quad states would eventually affect the security and power dynamics of South Asia.
Pakistan has a significant role in China’s grand strategy as it provides a gateway to China in the Arabian Sea. However, Pakistan is way behind in its maritime security and is dependent more on its alliance with China to maintain deterrence against India. However, since the inception of the US Indo-Pacific doctrine, Pakistan has become more active with regard to its maritime security and modernization. In 2018, the Pakistan navy also launched its maritime doctrine named ‘Preserving Freedom of Seas’, focusing on multiple domains, including maritime force, economy, and trade. The same year, Pakistan initiated Regional Maritime Security Patrols (RMSP) in the Gulf of Oman, Aden, and the Arabian sea to balance maritime security internally. Pakistan has also signed an agreement with Turkey to construct 4 MILGEM Class Corvettes; two will be constructed in Karachi and the other two in Turkey. These corvettes would help the Pakistan navy to carry out both offensive and defensive operations.
Furthermore, Pakistan and China have also carried out joint exercises named Aman 2019 and Sea Guardians 2020, during which advanced frigates and destroyers were used. Recently in November 2021, Pakistan has received a 054A/P frigate officially known as PNS Tughril from China. The Tugril frigate has reduced the capability gap of the Pakistani Navy as it could carry medium-range air defence missiles and is very significant for anti-submarine warfare. Other than China and Turkey, Pakistan has been trying to improve its relationship with Russia over the last decade. For Moscow, IOR is important to counter US dominance in the IOR. India strategic partnership with the US provides Pakistan with a significant opportunity to strengthen its ties with Russia and advance its maritime capacity and capability by initiating joint ventures.
In conclusion, Pakistan is trying to secure the balance of power by advancing its capacity, capability and credibility with the help of external players. Besides advancing its maritime security, it is imperative for Pakistan to utilize China’s maritime silk route to explore new trade markets, especially in Africa and Asia, to increase its influence in other regions.
