After just fourteen days of heinous terrorist attack in Pahalgam, killing 26 civilians, in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), India launched several missile strikes inside Pakistan, on 7 May 2025, killing 31 Pakistani civilians and injuring 46 others including women and children, in Azad Kashmir, Shaqargarh, Muridke, and Sialkot areas. This attack was instigated by India, without sharing any substantial evidence either bilaterally or via multilateral forums like the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and UN Security Council (UNSC) on Pakistan’s alleged involvement in Pahalgam. It violated Pakistan’s territorial integrity, overriding international law, which left Pakistan with no choice but to retaliate, putting South Asia at the edge of nuclear warfare. This was yet another attempt by India to systematically engage Pakistan via low-intensity conflict, under India’s Cold Start Doctrine, aimed to exhaust Pakistan via repeated engagement in small-scale conventional warfare and override Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence against India, while also getting away with incremental violation of Pakistan’s territorial integrity.
India under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has become excessively hostile towards neighbouring states, committed to asserting dominance based on trade dependence, small territorial incursions and self-proclaimed cultural supremacy. It has become one of the largest arms importers in recent years, according to SIPRI, moving away quite sharply from Russian supplies and inclining more towards the United States (US) and France, especially after the US opted for India as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean, to deter China, giving India a rather formidable regional status. In a grave strategic miscalculation, India misread the readiness of Pakistan and China under what Sameer Lalwani termed as the “Threshold Alliance” enabled by an unwavering strategic trust, exchange of military technology, joint military exercises, intelligence exchange, and ability to swiftly coordinate in war times, to deter India.
The myth of Indian supremacy in conventional warfare and its ability to use diplomatic influence to contain Pakistan via restricting its options to non-nuclear and non-escalatory retaliation was effectively broken on 7 and 9 May 2025. China and Pakistan Air Force coordinated a networked intelligent air combat against the Indian Air Force, effectively downing several Indian fighter jets, including French-made Rafales, and bringing Indian air bases, even the S-400 air defence system of India within strike range, without violating Indian territory, thanks to PL-15 missiles mounted on J10-Cs operated by Pakistan Air Force, along with long-range Fateh Missile. This incident not only pushed India to a US-brokered ceasefire but made it quite obvious that the China-Pakistan alliance can readily deter India’s ambitions to introduce a “new normal” and will contain India’s ambitions to grow beyond its territorial boundaries by violating territorial integrity or extending political influence via proxy warfare and territorial incursions of smaller South Asian states.
Pakistan and China’s Threshold Alliance tested beyond Maximum Restraint
Although China-Pakistan bilateral ties have been developing since 1962, two events paved the way for robust China-Pakistan relations across trade and military domains. First is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) worth $62 billion in which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) plays a central role. Initiatives under it like Gwadar Port offer China explicit access through Pakistan, to novel trade routes, and sea lines of communication, ensuring trade and military dominance in the Indian Ocean via fostering trade interdependence and alignment of economic and security gaols of regional states. Second is India’s growing military and political influence, especially in alliance with the US, which China sees as a direct threat to its ambition to dominate the Indian Ocean. China also views US incursions in the Indian Ocean via the Indo-Pacific Alliance, i.e., the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), that involves the US, Japan, Australia, and India as a threat, since China’s 80% of energy needs, 43% of raw materials consumed, and over 55% of exports go through the Indian Ocean making it the lifeline of its economy. In recent years, India’s several defence agreements with the US gave it access to the latest military equipment, technology and in-house production capacity, which India claimed gave it conventional warfare supremacy in the region, bringing entire Pakistan within strike range backed by a strong economy necessary to sustain prolonged military engagements.
India had to face a strong retaliation from the China-enabled Pakistan Air Force and made to give in to a US-negotiated ceasefire, making it quite obvious that it did not have the military or political prowess to get away with belligerence in the region.
Despite looking good on paper, India’s trade leadership in South Asia and defence pacts with the US, led to BJP’s overconfidence and insistence to coerce surrounding states to admit Indian supremacy, via territorial incursions, coercive diplomacy and enabling proxy wars in other states. Emboldened India unilaterally abolished the autonomous status of occupied Kashmir in 2019, turning Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh into two separate union territories, thus unilaterally altering an UN-declared disputed territory. India encroached Kalapani region in Nepal, promoted anti-Pakistan Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh, and extended ties with the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan despite their support to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). India supports separatist militant organisations like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Baloch Republican Guards (BRG), in Balochistan, leading to Jaffar Express-like terrorist incidents in Pakistan. In the past, it had funded and trained Mukti Bahini rebels against East Pakistan, leading to the creation of Bangladesh and rebels of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) against the Sri Lankan government. India recently came out on sustaining strong ties with the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan despite their support to TTP’s transnational terror operations in Pakistan especially against Chinese officials. Its repeated skirmishes and confrontations with border security forces in China led to skirmishes between both states.
India’s repeated coercive dominance on smaller South Asian states and Pakistan, and alignment of security goals with the US aligned it not only against China but regional states. India also resisted connecting Southeast Asian markets with China and Central Asia by blocking routes of CPEC and BRI beyond Pakistan and insisted on extending its own trade dominance via border infrastructures and bilateral agreements with smaller South Asian states. This only brought China and Pakistan closer, especially militarily, since 2012, China and Pakistan have significantly deepened military ties through frequent and complex joint exercises such as annual Shaheen Airforce exercises, Sea Guardians naval exercises, and Warriors army exercises and intelligence cooperation with a focus on interoperability and joint operational capacity. Eventually, on 9 May 2025, India had to face a strong retaliation from the China-enabled Pakistan Air Force and made to give in to a US-negotiated ceasefire, making it quite obvious that it did not have the military or political prowess to get away with belligerence in the region.
The Backdrop of India’s Diplomatic Isolation in the Region
It was quite evident during the recent Pak-India stand-off, that no regional state, not even Russia favoured Indian strikes targeting civilians in Pakistan. Not only that, but prominent actors like China, Türkiye and Azerbaijan openly condemned India and supported Pakistan militarily or diplomatically. Ironically, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar praised the Afghan Taliban for supporting it through the stand-off with Pakistan, with reports of high-level Taliban leadership visiting Delhi during the time, proceeded by an Indian representative visiting Kabul before strikes on Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan-Afghanistan relations remained tense due to the continued cross-border terrorism of TTP and its links to BLA. Russia-Pakistan relations have improved in recent years, because of Pakistan’s potential to act as a “zipper of pan-Eurasian integration”, connecting Russia and Central Asia to South Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Moreover, issues like terrorism and extremism in South Asia especially Afghanistan and its potential spillover effects to Russia’s backyard (Central Asia) also brought the two states together.
Meanwhile, India’s indifference to regional issues and resistance to China’s growing influence eventually led it to stand alone in the region. In 2020, India refused to participate in joint tri-services exercises in Russia because of the presence of Chinese and Pakistani soldiers. However, it agreed in 2018, to participate in Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) anti-terror joint drills held in Russia. India has time and again made it quite clear that its foreign policy goals on trade and defence do not align with China and Pakistan’s preferences for regional integration, trade interdependence and collective security, especially when it comes to harnessing BRI’s true potential and deterring western intervention in the Indian Ocean. The most striking blow to India’s diplomatic confidence was the direct intervention of US President Donald Trump to push India for a ceasefire with Pakistan, though the US was initially indifferent to the India-Pakistan conflict. India is now actively denying US potency in the ceasefire, though Trump still keeps saying that a trade offer to both countries persuaded them to ceasefire, he also encouraged both states to negotiate on the Kashmir issue, thus internationalising the dispute which India thought settled unilaterally for good.
The Death of Cold Start by Modi and China’s Revised Status Quo in South Asia
India tried to restrict Pakistan’s retaliation option and choke its diplomatic outreach, meanwhile unilaterally abrogating the Indus Water Treaty and conducting missile strikes against unarmed civilians in Pakistan, hoping for the successful execution of Cold Start and establishing a “new norm” in the region. What the Modi government failed to understand is that a supreme strategist controls the conflict outcome not just the decision choices of the opponent. This is exactly what the Threshold Alliance achieved, after exhibiting maximum restraint, despite three days of blatant Indian incursions in Pakistan’s airspace, choking critical water supply to Pakistan which is a lower riparian state and incremental encroachment of disputed territories with Pakistan and China in recent years, both states cooperated to successfully reverse the status quo in a few crucial hours of air combat, exhibiting integrated deterrence against India, via conventional warfare, especially air supremacy on 9 May 2025. This pushed India back into its territory, and brought its key civilian and military infrastructure within strike range via air-to-surface and surface-to-surface missiles along with loitering munitions, cancelling any chances of an India-like “new norm” in the region. India’s diplomatic fragility in the region was brought out in the open, and India-US strategic trust was tainted as Jaishankar indulged in a verbal crossfire on why and how India reached a ceasefire. China, meanwhile, experienced a boost in military exports, especially since it is now battle-tested against Western technology of J-10C jets, and PL-15 missiles and also pulled Pakistan and Afghanistan into a strategic dialogue in Beijing, making sure India gets no room to play on political differences to its advantage. With this, China came out as the regional hegemon, balancing out India, via alliances and military supremacy.
