On 24 March 2023, the Indian Army claimed a “technical glitch” behind the misfiring of three surface-to-air missiles during an exercise in the Pokhran range. At the time of writing, debris from two missiles was recovered in nearby villages of Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. Interestingly, this is not the first incident in which Indian forces have misfired a missile; it is increasingly becoming an annual March ritual.
Last year in March, fired BrahMos, a nuclear-capable supersonic cruise missile, inside Pakistan and claimed it was an error. This could have escalated into a nuclear crisis if Pakistan had not shown restraint. Given the sensitivity of the region, such incidents can seriously threaten regional security and must be adequately probed. Incompetence and negligence can become significant reasons for plunging the region into a nuclear crisis. Fortunately, the BrahMos missile did not cause any casualties. Else, the pressure on Pakistan to retaliate could have been enormous.
The literature on nuclear escalation is filled with studies on the unintended or accidental risks of nuclear crisis that examine miscalculations, misperceptions, and misunderstandings. However, incompetence and negligence are also equal risks to an inadvertent nuclear escalation that has not been given due diligence in the literature. Since the advent of nuclear weapons, it is the only incident in which a nuclear-capable missile was launched by a nuclear weapon state with an enduring animus into the territory of another nuclear power. The BrahMos fiasco could have been taken as an isolated event of “mistake” if not, after a year, India misfired three more missiles. Luckily, the range of these missiles was 10 to 25 km. Otherwise, they could have also strayed into Pakistani territory and prompted a response.
The missiles that got misfired during the firing exercise were surface-to-air missiles. However, much information on the name of the missile or other functions has not been provided. On the basis of already known information, the description of the given missile matches that of the AKASH short-range mobile surface-to-air missile system. Yet, it cannot be said with complete certainty that the missiles were of the AKASH system. Two important facts must also be mentioned. Firstly, the missiles were being fired by experts in the Indian Army. This exposes the lack of competence and credibility of the Indian forces. Secondly, the exercises were taking place near the India-Pakistan border. From the area of exercises – the Jaisalmer district – border with Pakistan is at a distance of around 150-200 km. Further, the wreckage of one missile was found at Satyaya village, approximately 75 km from the Pakistani border. The proximity of misfiring towards Pakistan’s border raises serious concerns.
India has frontiers with Pakistan and China, has territorial disputes with both, and has gone to wars with both nuclear powers. The fragile relations with neighbours should make India more careful if it wishes to avoid an inadvertent or accidental conflict. Misfiring missiles is a serious issue in such a volatile neighbourhood. The region cannot afford incompetence and negligence. The international community should mount pressure on India to provide transparency on its repeated claims of accidents. There should be an open inquiry, and reports should be made public to ascertain the exact reasons behind these repeated incidents. Also, Pakistan should be made part of the inquiry on BrahMos as it was on the receiving end. Islamabad has repeatedly asked for a joint probe into this irresponsible incident.
After the BrahMos incident, the Indian government conducted a court of inquiry. Three Air Force officers were made scapegoats and were discharged from service. However, one indicted Wing Commander moved the court, maintaining he was not trained for these operational matters and had followed all the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). If true, the SOPs were inadequate, and this speaks volumes about the incompetence of the system and human resources. It is not difficult to imagine the morale and fear factor in the world’s third-largest military. Everyone would be scared of losing their jobs because the inept leadership did not make proper SOPs, or worse, deliberately launched a missile and put the blame on junior officers.
If it was Indian incompetence and negligence, it raises serious concerns regarding the safety of its nuclear program and regional stability. The least the West can do is to distance itself from the lame horse it is betting on to contain China. This will save them some grace and also save the region from a serious crisis that may not remain local. Such faux pas or deliberate brinkmanship can only be brushed under the carpet if India’s partners are part of such designs.
