The Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has continuously failed in the field of policy making. Hence, they always blame their incompetence, inefficacy and catastrophes towards Pakistan. For all terrorist attacks in India and Indian-occupied Kashmir (IOK), Pakistan is the usual suspect. Home Minister of India Rajnath Singh alleged that Pakistan is a terrorist state. In the town of Uri, IOK, an attack was carried out on in which 18 soldiers of the Indian Army were killed by a militant group. India, perhaps working through an SOP, alleged Pakistan for this militant attack in Uri without dawdling.
Over the past few months, Indian government ramped up the efforts to maintain pressure on Islamabad to remove the so-called safe havens of terrorists from Pakistan or AJK soil. India increased the pressure on Pakistan by raising the issue in the G20 Summit, the United Nations, and other global summits. The attack took place at the same time as the ongoing United Nation General Assembly sessions, and Pakistan Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif is scheduled to present the case against Indian atrocities committed in Indian-occupied Kashmir.
A belligerent response is expected from Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on 26th September at the United Nations General Assembly, in which sanctions would be demanded against Islamabad for their alleged Uri attack. Moreover, the Uri attack has given carte blanche to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi not to attend the SAARC conference hosted by Islamabad in November 2016. Not even a single militant group has accepted the responsibility of the Uri attack which leaving the equation vague and unbalanced.
Connecting the dots, defusing the diplomatic efforts, cultivating international environment in its own favour and blaming Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism are some of the tools of Fifth Generation Warfare employed by India.
Opposition parties blamed Narendra Modi government for the disastrous attack on Uri and called it a ‘security lapse’, whereas the Indian public wants a befitting response against Pakistan. Indian government may act accordingly. However, military options like surgical strikes or hot pursuit is not in their favour as there are chances of escalation which will bring the two South Asian nuclear powers on the brink of nuclear war.
Conspiracy theories direct us towards the usage of false flag attack. Coinciding timing of the attack with the UNGA sessions is also one such indicator, which again leaves us wondering about the favorable outcomes for the state of Pakistan.
However, from a purely defense, security and strategic point of view, Uri attack did put Indians at odd on many fronts. Details can be discussed in another analysis though.
Many options are under consideration regarding the response to the Uri attack. The most eminent option in Indian policy circles is to isolate Pakistan by gaining the support of international grouping i.e. the P5+1 and the OIC which is a travesty in itself due to the significant geographical disposition of Pakistan.
Another option was presented by Shakar Roy Chaudhry, ex-Army Chief of India, that India should form its own “Suicide Squad” (Fidayeen) in response to the alleged Pakistan sponsored attack. Another option for India is precision strikes, which is not more plausible than any other fictional option. These are the kinds of strikes that Israel and the US have launched, with vastly superior intelligence and targeting capabilities, resulting in a large number of civilian deaths in Gaza and Afghanistan. But it could not produce the desired effect of cowing down the local populace. Thus India is left with no other option except unconventional and asymmetric engagements.
Weighing the options, India will likely to use sub-conventional tactics with a combination of swift covert strikes within Pakistan in the coming days. Examining the fragile situation of domestic politics within Pakistan, it will be the perfect opportunity for India and RAW to play their cards with non-kinetic means.
Specifically, the protest on 30th September at Raiwind is likely to end in a showdown between the government and the opposition. Such an occurrence could lead to chaos in Lahore. Creative Chaos is another tool of the Fifth Generation Warfare in which existing chaos is either exacerbated or chaos is deliberately engineered to distort public perceptions, cultivate favourable space and an environment in pursuit of the envisaged policy objective.
Realistically stating, the only way to deal with the issues at hand is to devise persistent policies and make them the cornerstone of our thought process and methodology. Firstly, security quarters must put relevant areas and events on high alert radar. Secondly, special focus should be given to the western border as trends emerging from there are not favourable for state security. Thirdly, border management should be dealt with meticulously. Fourthly; it is the ideal time to hit India with a diplomatic offensive by raising the issue of human rights violation by India in Indian-occupied Kashmir. Lastly, the march towards Raiwind should be rolled back or delayed until the international arena is in favour of Pakistan. All these policy recommendations need efficient coordination among LEAs, security agencies and relevant institutions for harnessing their efforts to avoid envisaged threats to Pakistan. Moreover, there is a dire need of internal harmony among the nation in the critical days to come, to avoid any disastrous situation.
More importantly, a national narrative on Kashmir must be projected. India is playing smart by beating the over-hyped war drums. Buying the Indian narrative that any attack in Kashmir is an attack on Indian soil is establishing the very fact which India is propagating, that Kashmir is an integral part of India. This is in fact a blatant lie as per the UN charter and UN resolutions. Any activity, from street activism to armed struggle is covered and comes under the ambit of these resolutions and laws. The state machinery should raise questions about Indian atrocities proactively and even question the Uri attack and its background. India is consistently sweeping the Kashmir cause under the rug. The disputed nature of the region is muffled under the amplified noise of Indian war hysteria, which Pakistan, its policy elites and media organizations should not let happen.