Recent months have seen a slow but steady increase in tensions in the Baltic Sea region, with several states accusing Russia and China of damaging or severing undersea communication and power cables. A notable incident occurred on 17 and 18 November 2024, when two fibre optic communication cables were damaged, one connecting Germany and Finland, the other Lithuania and the Swedish island of Gotland. German Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius said, he did not believe that the damage to these two cables was a mere accident, and the main assumption was that these cables were sabotaged. While suspicion fell on Chinese and Russian vessels present in the area, neither country was formally blamed initially. Latvia subsequently announced increased patrols in the affected area. Adding to the unease, a Chinese ship, the Yi Peng 3, suspected of involvement, was trailed by a Royal Danish Navy vessel on 20 November, having reportedly passed over both cables around the time of the damage.

The Yi Peng 3 then anchored in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden for nearly a month, while the affected nations negotiated access to the vessel for their own investigation. Finally, on 19 December, authorities from Sweden, Germany, Finland, and Denmark were invited to the ship to observe an investigation conducted by the Chinese authorities. Following this on 21 December, the ship embarked on its planned destination of Port Said in Egypt, while the governments of Sweden and China argued how much cooperation the latter had extended to the former in helping its investigation.

Then, on 25 December, an undersea power cable, EstLink 2, which links Finland to Estonia was damaged, and Finish authorities stated that this may have been a case of sabotage. The following day, Finnish authorities, including police, border guards, and the Finnish Defence Forces, seized the Cook Islands-registered oil tanker Eagle S on suspicion of severing the EstLink 2 cable. This vessel, allegedly part of a “dark fleet” used to ship Russian oil, was reportedly equipped with spy equipment and other unusual installations for a commercial tanker, effectively functioning as a spy ship. In addition to the power cable, Eagle S also damaged four communication cables, one connecting Finland to Germany and the other three connecting Finland to Estonia. Furthermore, reports suggest that the ship’s equipment may have been used to monitor the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) communications.

With tensions already high between NATO and Russia over the latter’s invasion of and war with Ukraine, these actions, if actually orchestrated by Russia, are a provocation that seems unnecessary given its already pressing concerns.

This incident prompted NATO to consider increasing its presence in the Baltic Sea, while the Estonian Navy dispatched a patrol boat to protect the Estlink 1 power cable between Finland and Estonia. Finnish authorities revealed that a visual check of the Eagle S was initially carried out by a Finnish patrol boat, which noticed that the ship was missing one of its anchors. After an investigation, Finnish authorities stated that the crew was bound to damage the Estlink 1 power cable and the BalticConnector gas pipeline when it was seized by Finnish law enforcement. Nine of the ship’s 24 crew members were identified as suspects and barred from travelling.

These two incidents triggered a substantial response from NATO, with there initially being reports of the alliance sending around 10 ships into the area to deter any further acts of sabotage against undersea power or communication cables. In a parallel effort, the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force activated Nordic Warden. It is an advanced system that also harnesses AI to track threats to undersea infrastructure and the shadow fleet of tankers transporting Russian oil. During the Baltic Sea NATO Allies summit on 14 January 2025, the Baltic Sea states thanked NATO for launching Operation Baltic Sentry meant to enhance situational awareness and deter any hostile actions within the Baltic Sea against NATO states.

Within the ambit of Baltic Sentry NATO is deploying two different surface warship task groups, maritime patrol aircraft, and Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs). These are being deployed for the first time to the Baltic Sea area. According to NATO commanders, the overall goal of deploying these assets is to have a clear picture of what is ensuing in the area with inputs from different kinds of sensors found on the various assets being deployed. Then on 17 January, a French Maritime Patrol Aircraft was locked on by a Russian S400 air defence system while flying in international airspace. The aircraft also encountered some form of jamming while patrolling in the Baltic Sea as part of a NATO operation. NATO has also deployed four F-35 stealth fighters belonging to the Dutch Air Force as part of the Baltic Sentry operation, with the alliance having stated that the four stealth fighters along with other maritime patrol aircraft help in “understanding the environment so we can prevent, mitigate, or respond to an identified threat, including damage to critical undersea infrastructure,” which is the goal of the operation.

The most recent incident occurred on 27 January, when a fibre optic communication cable between the Swedish island of Gotland and Latvia was damaged. The Malta-flagged ship, Vezhen, suspected to have undertaken the aggravated sabotage, has been seized by the Swedish authorities. The Baltic States and NATO have been forced to undertake these operations to protect undersea cables and pipelines which supply the nine Baltic States with power, gas, and communication that help run the economies of these states. Including this latest incident, a total of 11 cables have been damaged or severed in the Baltic since October 2023. Over time, this has induced a fear of Russia undertaking a hybrid war against the Baltic States, targeting civilian infrastructure.

With tensions already high between NATO and Russia over the latter’s invasion of and war with Ukraine, these actions, if actually orchestrated by Russia, are a provocation that seems unnecessary given its already pressing concerns.  Instances like the Russian air defence system locking onto a French aircraft only serve to further increase tension and could lead to a standoff or confrontation between NATO and Russia, as even a small mistake with such high stakes could be disastrous.