16 years ago, the US invaded Afghanistan with the aim to dismantle Al-Qaeda (AQ), which American authorities blamed for the September 11 attacks. America also aimed not to provide the terror outfit with a base of operations in Afghanistan by removing Afghan Taliban, who were ruling Kabul since 1996.
In last 16 years, capabilities of Al-Qaeda in Pak-Afghan region have been reduced significantly. In this regard, Pakistani security forces also played an important role in assisting International Security Assistance Force in killing and nabbing top Al-Qaeda leaders. However, the overall situation of Afghanistan still remains grimmer. The country has become a safe haven for a number of terror outfits who are responsible for planning attacks in its neighboring countries and foreign troops stationed in Afghanistan. Afghanistan also remains a theater of proxy war for several countries with their own interests.
Despite the fact that 16 years have passed since the arrival of foreign troops in Afghanistan, the Afghan government has managed to control nearly 60 percent of the territory.
Since the 2001 invasion, more than 31,000 Afghan civilians have lost their lives. Despite the fact that 16 years have passed since the arrival of foreign troops in Afghanistan, the Afghan government has managed to control nearly 60 percent of the territory. Out of the remaining territory, 11 percent is under the control of Afghan Taliban and 29 percent remains contested.
The Afghan security forces still lack the manpower, equipment and training to ensure full writ of the Afghan government. The 350,000-Afghan security forces have close to 1000 generals, 1.5-fold the US Armed Forces, but losing around 5,000 soldiers and officers every month because of desertion and casualties.
The US-led invasion also has significantly impacted Afghan society. The number of internally displaced people has surpassed 1.2 million, the highest figure since 2002.
The US-led invasion also has significantly impacted Afghan society. The number of internally displaced people has surpassed 1.2 million, the highest figure since 2002. More than 2.7 million people in Afghanistan are malnourished, including 365,000 who have secure malnutrition. However, only 35 percent are receiving treatment. Every year, more than 126,000 children under the age of five die of malnutrition. The deteriorated security situation and lack of economic opportunities have forced many young Afghans to flee to foreign countries in search of a better future. Last year, Afghans were the second largest group of asylum seekers in Europe with 62,100 applicants. Opium production in the war-torn country has also increased 25-fold since 2001.
For the past 16 years, Afghanistan remains one of the biggest recipients of foreign aid. The US has spent some $700 billion on military operations and reconstruction projects in the war-torn country. However, Afghanistan is still one of the poorest countries in the world. 10 million people live under the poverty line and only 25% of the population is literate. Major chunks of foreign aid money mostly end up in offshore bank accounts of major warlords and their cronies.
Afghanistan continues to remain a safe haven for several terror groups. The prominent Afghanistan-based terror groups include ISIS Khorasan Wilayah (province), AQ, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, LeJ-Almi, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, East Turkistan Islamic Movement, Baloch Liberation Army and Baloch Republican Army. Apart from attacking targets in Afghanistan, these groups have also been involved in carrying out subversive activities in Pakistan and China. National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan’s premier intelligence agency, is also involved in supporting some of these terror outfits for its nefarious designs.
In last 16 years, various regional countries have been involved in carrying out a proxy war in the war-ravaged Afghanistan. India’s external intelligence agency, R&AW, has been supporting TTP, JuA and Balochistan sub-nationalist outfits to carry out terror attacks in Pakistan. In March last year, Pakistan captured an Indian spy, Kulbhushan Jadhav, who has confessed of Indian sponsorship of terrorism in Balochistan and Karachi. Jadhav’s confession can also be corroborated by retired Indian Army chief General Vijay Kumar Singh, who also admitted to sponsoring terror attacks in Pakistan and supporting separatist elements in Balochistan.
Similarly, Russia has also increased its involvement in Afghanistan. According to several media reports, Russia has been providing material support to Afghan Taliban to defeat ISIS. Moscow’s increased participation in Afghanistan war is to ensure that the terrorism from the war-torn country does not spillover in to Central Asia, which Russia considers as its backyard. Not only Russia, Iran is also reportedly supporting Afghan Taliban to offset ISIS and to increase the war cost for the US-led coalition.
Many analysts believe that Donald Trump’s Afghanistan policy will not help in ending America’s longest war. The decision of sending additional four thousand troops will not be able to change the ground situation in the war-torn country. In 2010, the US had 100,000 troops stationed in Afghanistan but despite such a huge presence, the law and order situation in Afghanistan deteriorated further.
Many analysts believe that Donald Trump’s Afghanistan policy will not help in ending America’s longest war. The decision of sending additional four thousand troops will not be able to change the ground situation in the war-torn country.
The last 16 years have proved that military option is not a solution to solve Afghan crisis. The crisis of the war-torn country can be solved by the process of Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation efforts. A time-frame should be chalked out regarding the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. A scheduled time-frame will help the government in Kabul to reach out to Afghan Taliban for negotiations. Afghan Taliban should also respond positively to the offer of Afghan government by quick reduction in violent attacks.
Kabul should also eliminate the rogue elements within its security apparatus in order to ensure that Afghanistan does not remain a sanctuary for terror outfits. This approach will also help Kabul in improving its relations with neighboring countries and will ensure that regional countries do not use Afghan soil for their proxy war.
The Quadrilateral Coordination Group framework proved to be a success in the past and therefore it should be revived so that a solution could be reached for resolving the crisis faced by Afghanistan. Delaying tactics regarding negotiations will not help anyone but will further add misery to the lives of Afghan people who have remained in turmoil for more than three decades.
