In 2016, the Saudi embassy in Iran was attacked, after which Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic relations with Tehran, with both countries evacuating their diplomatic staff from their respective embassies. Saudi-Iran relations have remained estranged over the years due to political and religious differences, and their rivalry is one of the major contentions in the region. On 10 March 2023, both states restored their diplomatic relations after seven years. While the announcement has led to a surge of optimism, this is only the first step towards a long journey that is required to mend the years of hostility between the two regional rivals. At the same time, the deal is not completely fruitless.
The resumption of diplomatic ties means that the channels of communication and dialogue between both states have been reinstated, which can be used to negotiate regional contentions. This includes, but is not limited to, the case of Syria and Yemen. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been supporting Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition, respectively. This prolonged conflict has led to 370,000 deaths, 60% of which have been caused by a lack of food, water, and health services due to the prevailing civil war. The Saudi-Iran deal is a ray of hope for one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. The extent to which reconciliation is possible between the internal factions involved in the war is still unclear, but the Saudi-Iran resumption of dialogue could lead to a mutually agreeable compromise to form an inclusive national government in Yemen.
With diplomatic channels resumed, the prospects of economic and security cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia have also increased.
The deal is also a positive signal for another war-torn theatre in the region, i.e., Syria. Iran has long been supporting President Bashar Al Assad, and Saudi Arabia has been backing political opposition to topple Assad’s regime. Saudi Arabia has been contributing hundreds of millions of dollars to the coalition efforts in Syria and has also hosted over 2.5 million Syrians, according to 2015 statistics. Iran has also spent up to $30 million in the Syrian war, despite its own crippling economy. Suffice it to say that this conflict has been costly for both Saudi Arabia and Iran. Therefore, a long-term solution through comprehensive dialogue for efforts towards governance and administrative reforms in Syria could prove to be mutually beneficial. The bottom line is working towards regional stability, which this deal can potentially initiate. The Syrian foreign ministry itself praised the agreement as a step towards regional stability.
With diplomatic channels resumed, the prospects of economic and security cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia have also increased. In a joint trilateral statement released by the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, Riyadh and Tehran agreed to implement the Security Cooperation Agreement that was signed in 2001. They also agreed to resume the implementation of the General Agreement for Cooperation in the Fields of Economy, Trade, Investment, Technology, Science, Culture, Sports, and Youth, which was signed in 1998. These agreements could potentially open diverse avenues of cooperation between both states in the economic and security sector. Since China has brokered the agreement, it can also facilitate investment opportunities between both states while acting as an impartial mediator. The western sanctions on Iran are still a great challenge to trade between both states but provided that Saudi Arabia pushes back against the western sanctions campaign against Iran, both states can form free trade zones and increase economic integration. The possibility of this happening is too ambitious in the short term but can be productive in the long term.
The Saudi-Iran diplomatic engagement can also help both states address non-traditional security issues at the regional level. For example, climate change is an avenue for mutual convergence between both states. The average rise in temperature in the region is twice as much compared to the rest of the world. Being energy-based economies, Saudi Arabia and Iran are one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases and are one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. According to recent reports, Iran and Saudi Arabia are among the world’s top 15 fossil fuel methane “super emitters”. Saudi Arabia has set a carbon capture target of 44 million tons annually by 2035, and Iran has the opportunity to cooperate with Saudi Arabia to get assistance regarding carbon capture technologies now that diplomatic channels are open between the two.
It is evident that the agreement will not solve the issues of high politics overnight. The substantial and productive outcomes will take their course. As much as the complex interlinked factor in the region makes it complicated, the same complexity also generates the spillover effects provided one issue is addressed. For example, Saudi-Lebanese relations became estranged in 2021 after Lebanon’s criticism of Saudi’s role in the Yemen war. Hence, the peacebuilding in Yemen will automatically lead towards Saudi-Lebanese rapprochement. This is just one of the examples of how Saudi-Iran cooperation can promote stability, harmony and prosperity in the region. Moreover, cultural and religious tolerance are other diplomatic avenues of cooperation that can be ensured through cultural exchanges and tourism in both states. Despite the far-fetched hopes, the deal is an impressive breakthrough in a much-polarised region.
