The 21st-century geopolitics is marked by strategic competition between the United States (US) and China, with China’s economic ascent challenging US regional hegemony. As the world’s second-largest economy at $19.5 trillion, China is projected to become the world’s largest economy by 2030. The defence related spending reaches approximately $711 billion. Economically, China dominates the Fortune Global 500 list, with its companies growing from 11 in 2003 to 142 in 2023, while US companies have decreased from 192 to 136 during the same period. This trend highlights China’s robust investment in infrastructure and state enterprises and the transformative Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has seen over $1 trillion invested in global trade connectivity.
Although China’s influence is on the rise, the US still holds a key position in international organisations and possesses strong military power and alliances to challenge the rising might of China, particularly in areas of US strategic interests. This rivalry defines 21st-century geopolitics, as the two great powers vying for global supremacy.
Historically, US policy toward China has shifted from engagement to strategic competition. The origins of the US and China engagement date back to the early 1970s when President Richard Nixon sought to counter the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) influence by normalising relations with Beijing. In subsequent decades, US policies promoted China’s economic integration, culminating in its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. The US hoped that economic liberalisation would lead to political reform. However, as China’s economic and military power grew with minimal political reform, the US reassessed its approach.
Under Trump 2.0, America’s policy of containing China is expected to persist as the US views China as a strategic adversary rather than just a competitor, signalling a potentially contentious relationship in the coming years.
Under the Trump administration, the US openly branded China as a strategic competitor and launched a trade war against China, ending engagement and moving towards competition. Measures included tariffs on Chinese goods, sanctions against 90 Chinese entities in 2020, and restrictions on Chinese technology exports. According to the Centre for a New American Security, these sanctions accounted for 11.5% of all US designations in 2020 alone. The administration also intensified military posturing in the Indo-Pacific and provided robust support to Taiwan, a move that exacerbated tensions with China.
The Biden administration has continued this competitive approach, and concentrated on alliances to counterbalance China’s influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The US Annual Threat Assessment Report underscores China as a main threat to its strategic interests, alongside Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Meanwhile, the US Congress passed the Strategic Competition Act under which they have a fund of $300 million for countering China’s influence. Similarly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) recognised China as a strategic threat in its 2022 framework, signalling a potential expansion of NATO’s focus into Asia. Intelligence leaders, including MI6 Chief, Richard Moore and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director, William Joseph Burns have warned that the global order faces unprecedented threats since the Cold War, chiefly from China and Russia; and together, both agencies can address the geopolitical challenges posed by China in the 21st century.
The Indo-Pacific region has become the focal point of US-China strategic competition. As a chief economic hub with the presence of the world’s largest economies; China, the US, and Japan, the region accounts for 60% of global gross domestic product (GDP). This makes it a potential powerhouse or a site of economic turmoil. China’s growing economic presence in the region, particularly through its BRI, has posed a challenge to US dominance. At the same time, China’s alliances with Indian Ocean coastal nations assert its regional power.
In response, the US has augmented its strategic coalition mechanisms to preserve global hegemony and counter China’s assertive approach. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad); an alliance between the US, India, Japan, Australia, and AUKUS; a defence pact among the US, the United Kingdom (UK), and Australia, aim to curb China’s influence in the region. Thus, the US is actively engaged in strategic alignments against China’s ambitions. China criticises this Cold War mentality of making alliances to undermine its sovereignty and contain its global rise. Another contentious flashpoint is the Taiwan issue which can lead to military clashes because China believes that the US is attempting to meddle in its internal affairs. China claims Taiwan while the US supports Taiwan’s right to self-determination without external pressure. Both are involved in military exercises over Taiwan’s status from time to time. Under President Biden, the US approved $567 million in military aid to Taiwan, reinforcing its role as Taiwan’s key security partner. However, China warns that continued US arms support for Taiwan would escalate the already volatile situation with serious consequences.
In their study “China’s Bargaining Strategies for a Peaceful Rise,’’ He and Feng argued that although direct conflict could hamper China’s rise, a Taiwanese declaration of independence, especially with US support, risks triggering a security dilemma in the region. The “Davidson Window”, a concept introduced by Admiral Philip Davidson, highlights 2027 as a high-risk period for Chinese action against Taiwan as this timeframe will likely shape US strategic planning, with both parties working to prevent escalation.
Technological rivalry is another critical aspect of US-China competition. While the US has enacted measures like Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science Act (CHIPS) to bolster domestic semiconductor production, China is investing heavily in artificial intelligence, 5G, and renewable energy technologies. According to a study by Graham Allison, China is overtaking the US in high-tech manufacturing, science and technology, 5G, robotics, AI, cloud computing, and Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM). To curb China’s technological rise, the US has recently banned high-tech exports to China intensifying the race for global leadership in innovation.
Despite the competitive undertones, the US-China relationship is undeniably interdependent. China’s rising influence is a significant challenge for the US but China also serves as the US’s largest trading partner with mutual trade exceeding $750 billion.
Now, the key question is, what possible policy directions might emerge under a Trump 2.0 administration? China’s rise as a global power is challenging the US’s long-standing dominance. Under Trump 2.0, America’s policy of containing China is expected to persist as the US views China as a strategic adversary rather than just a competitor, signalling a potentially contentious relationship in the coming years. Trump is likely to continue “America First” policies that will consist of tariffs, decoupling, and protectionism resulting in a more fragmented global economy. Trump may reimpose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports, further restrict Beijing’s access to advanced technologies, prioritise domestic innovation, and implement economic decoupling (to reduce US economic dependence on Chinese supply chains).
Militarily, Trump could escalate posturing in the Indo-Pacific, conducting joint exercises and increasing arms sales to allies like Taiwan, Japan, and India. His transactional approach, focused more on bilateral deals than multilateral coalitions could further strain US-China relations. In his previous term, Trump described tariffs as the “most beautiful word in the dictionary,” suggesting that trade wars may again dominate his strategy.
The trajectory of US-China relations under the Trump 2.0 presidency would likely intensify the competitive dynamic as the two nations vie for global influence across economic, technological, and military domains. Their interdependence underscores the need for stability Thus, there are a hundred reasons to improve US-China relations and not a single reason to ruin them. China, for its part, seeks to stabilise ties and hopes that the US views its development positively and works towards peaceful coexistence. Thus, US-China relations will remain central to global geopolitics, shaping the balance of power in an increasingly changing global order.
