Russia launched a new offensive before the one year anniversary of its attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Operations have been strengthened against eastern and southern Ukraine, and a major increase in aggression has been predicted. Nearly one year of this war has ravaged Ukraine. The prolonged conflict is expected to worsen what is already considered a grave “humanitarian and human rights catastrophe”. Yet amidst this massive humanitarian catastrophe and economic crisis, what Ukraine has repeatedly stressed is military aid to counter and defend itself against Russian attacks. Several countries, including Ukraine’s neighbours like Poland, have responded to this call. Nordic and Western states have also come to Ukraine’s aid. This includes the United States (U.S.), Canada and the United Kingdom (U.K). In the Islamic world, Turkey has been the primary state supplying arms to Ukraine. Recent reports place another country on this list; Pakistan is now on the list of countries allegedly coming to Ukraine’s military aid. Among this supposed supply are cluster munitions and howitzer shells. Reportedly, Pakistan is set to dispatch 159 containers of various ammunition, including propellant bags, primers and fuses, and 155mm howitzer shells via Poland. Ostensibly, this supply also contains rockets travelling via Karachi Port to Germany’s Emden port. While there have been confirmed arms supplies from other states to Ukraine–including U.S., U.K., and France etc.– Pakistan’s foreign office has categorically denied any such supplies. Even before the onset of the war, Pakistan stressed the peaceful resolution of the conflict through mediation and negotiation. Despite its internal political and economic instability, this stance has remained unchanged since the one year that the conflict has been active. And despite internal political and ideological differences, the current government has upheld its predecessor’s tradition of calling for the peaceful resolution of conflict. The country also recognises the economic costs of the war for developing countries like itself. Given Pakistan’s consistent stance of neutrality and its previous refusal to ostracise Russia in the United Nations during the vote on Ukraine, it is unreasonable that the country would go down the path which creates more trouble in its current economic state. A brief comparison of the Pak-Russia relations and Pak-Ukraine relations also points in this direction. Pakistan and Ukraine’s defence cooperation dates to the 1990s. This cooperation has consisted mainly of Ukraine supplying Pakistan with arms and not the other way around; approximately 320 T-80UD tanks manufactured by the Kharkiv Machine Building Design Bureau (KMDB) were ordered by Pakistan in 1996. They were subsequently delivered during the years 1997-1999. In addition to this, Pakistan has signed several Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with Ukraine in the defence sector. Since 2016, these have included areas ranging from the supply of diesel engines for Pakistani tanks to the upgradation and maintenance of other armoured vehicles. Other defence-related MoUs have included mutual agreements on the protection of classified information. However, this relationship is reported to be indeterminate, and Pakistan has been working to find alternative sources for the supply and maintenance of its arsenal. Contrastingly, the assistance from Pakistan to Ukraine has consisted mostly of humanitarian aid. Comparatively, Pakistan has had strained relations with Russia for a considerable period. It allied against Russia during the Cold war. Their relations were further strained due to the Afghan policy of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Yet Pakistan has always realised the need to repair this relationship. The growing western financial pressure and the West’s tumultuous policies towards Pakistan have also created a vacuum which cannot solely be filled by Chinese support. For its part, Russia has also highlighted Pakistan’s importance in a recent meeting between the two countries’ leaders following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s summit in Uzbekistan; Russia recognises the country as a “priority partner” in South Asia. Pakistan is also seeking to strengthen its ties with Russia to mitigate its energy crisis. The current progress in bilateral ties is driven by the Pakistani authorities’ efforts to revitalise bilateral relations. Pakistan is striving to import petroleum products and Russian oil at discounted rates. The technical details of the cooperation are expected to be settled in March this year, after which Pakistan is looking forward to the supply of Russian oil and oil products. This will help with the unchoking of its economy, which is close to default. Given its grave economic and energy conditions, it is unlikely that Pakistan would gamble with an unfavourable military aid project. Pakistan has previously stressed that it would not be taking sides or attaching itself to any camps in the war. Notwithstanding this policy, Pakistan recognises Russia’s importance. While the former Prime Minister’s visit to Russia became the subject of scrutiny, the fact that the meeting was not cancelled despite speculations of Russia’s aggressive motives highlights the importance Pakistani authorities have given to reviving ties between the two states. In this situation, Pakistan would not risk its future by engaging in arms supply to Ukraine. Articles Defense & Security Europe

Pakistan’s Political Predicament in Russia-Ukraine War Continues

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In the current international political situation, the content of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit appeared to be more geopolitical than economic in nature. G20 is a platform of the world’s wealthiest 20 nations that make up 80% of the world’s GDP and 75% of international trade. The heads of the state and government meet yearly on this platform to discuss the strategic views on contemporary economic trends and the future of economic prosperity and growth. This year, the G20 leaders’ summit was hosted by Indonesia in Bali, in which various issues were discussed, ranging from the Russia-Ukraine war to education to health. Apart from the main summit, there were various bilateral meetings as well that were held on the sidelines. This analysis will present the three most notable developments of the conference, including the Chinese aspiration for diplomatic mending, the further isolation of Russia and the Indian quest for regional leadership. The G20 Bali summit is particularly significant because China has once again come out of the so-called “self-imposed isolation” in the last three years after the COVID-19 outbreak, with a cordial posture towards fellow G20 leaders. The Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden held a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit. The Xi-Biden meeting significantly drew tremendous attention; some believed it to be a step towards repairing the fractured relationship, while others still thought the meeting had no substantial outcomes. China also held a bilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The French President insisted that China intervene and bring Russian leadership to the negotiating table, while he also presented his wish to visit China in early 2023. Nevertheless, the conference proved to be a relief for the observers that witnessed months of diplomatic silence between China and the US. It showed that the channels of communication are opening between the two with ongoing talks about the expected US Secretary of State’s anticipated visit to China. Moreover, the willingness of both sides to work on critical issues through collaborative working groups also demonstrates that the possibility of dangerous misunderstandings can be averted in the future. Xi’s speech at the summit also centred around the theme of “unity and cooperation”, reshaping Chinese relations with the group’s member countries on a positive note. One thing that the G20 summit clearly demonstrated is the inevitable interdependence between politics and the economy. It has struck many people that G20, a platform based on geoeconomic objectives, was overwhelmingly occupied with discussions centred around Ukraine and Russia. Instead of addressing the world’s most pressing issues with the will to attain consensus on deliberations, the platform was used to push Russia into further diplomatic isolation. This platform could have been an opportunity for the world’s most powerful leaders to at least try to find a way to involve Russia in the negotiations. Instead, every bilateral and unilateral communication was dominated by condemning Russia’s actions. The G20 meeting was evidence that every time the global economy is under discussion, it is overtaken by geopolitical and geostrategic overtones. Despite centring the summit’s theme around the war in Ukraine, a joint communique was not published, which shows that there was still a lack of consensus on the issue. It has also shown that economic dependency or interdependency also replicates in states’ political rhetoric. This can be a matter of concern for the future. For instance, if a similar geopolitical upset happens vis-à-vis China’s potential action towards Taiwan, there might be a divided stance due to many Asian states’ dependency on China. Moreover, the immense focus on the war on Ukraine deviated much-needed attention from the other core issues, such as post-pandemic economic recovery and global debt. China and India, who have previously refrained from commenting in favour of any side, have also shown concerns regarding Russian actions at the Bali summit. In contrast, Xi showed wariness about nuclear threats, and India pushed for a ceasefire. One peculiar case at the G20 summit is that of India. India’s activities at the summit were noteworthy, perhaps suiting an ambitious Global South leader. The most important milestone for India in the G20 summit is assuming the presidency of the G20 summit. With his statement that “today’s era must not be of war” vis-à-vis Russia-Ukraine war, Modi appeased the West, particularly the US administration, which appreciated India for the assertion. India’s proactiveness at the G20 summit is also associated with Modi boosting his election campaign by entitling himself as a global statesman. Overall, it is sufficing to say that the G20 summit, being an economic platform, hardly brought any fruitful economic outcomes. United Nations Security Council or NATO summits are a great platform to lash out at Russia, but the world expected a more economically productive output from the G20 summit. Americas Articles Trade & Economics

Assessing the Peculiar Developments from the G20 Summit

In the current international political situation, the content of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit appeared to be more geopolitical than economic in nature. G20 is a platform of the…

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