Weekly Policy Brief | 12 February – 18 February, 2018

Asia

Maldivian tourism sector suffers as state of emergency continues

The persistence of the state of emergency, which was imposed on February 5th, is hurting the tourism sector of the island nation in the form of cancelled bookings and issuance of travel warning from various foreign governments. The industry constitutes one-third of Maldives’ GDP.

Analysis

‘The political upheaval comes at a bad time for the Maldives’ many luxury hotels. While the Indian Ocean archipelago welcomes some 1.4 million tourists a year, the Chinese market makes up an increasingly large fraction of that total.’ Chris Leadbeater writes for The Telegraph.

‘Clearly it is in the best interests of the Maldives for democracy to be restored as soon as possible and for the country to return to a healthy relationship with its biggest and closest neighbour. But if Mr. Modi is patient and refrains from military intervention, the crisis may well solve itself. The Maldives is so dependent on the tourist revenues that have been shut off by the turmoil that establishment support for Mr. Yameen is rapidly draining away,’ says the Financial Times.

Central Asia

Afghan Taliban’s open letter to Americans

In an open letter addressing American people and the US Congress, the Afghan Taliban had called for dialogue to end the 17-year war in Afghanistan.

Analysis

‘The [Afghan] Taliban has released the letter at time when the United States has stepped up airstrikes in support of anti-insurgent ground and air operations by Afghan forces under President Donald Trump’s new war strategy to break the military stalemate with the Taliban and push insurgents to the negotiating table.’ Ayaz Gul writes for Voice of America.

‘This [letter’s] combination of outreach and threat has been a hallmark of Taliban statements, including a shorter one issued shortly after the spate of attacks last month that killed more than 150 people in urban population centers. The insurgent group has said it would not revive peace talks unless foreign troops leave the country, and it has rejected feelers from the administration of President Ashraf Ghani.’ Pamela Constable writes for The Washington Post.

South East Asia

Cambodian lawmakers pass Lese-majeste law

The National Assembly of Cambodia has passed a law making it illegal to punish the monarchy. Failure to comply will result in facing a prison sentence of up to five years and fines.

Analysis

‘Hun Sen has been in power for three decades, and while maintaining a framework of democracy, tolerates little opposition. In the past year, the government cracked down severely on its opponents and critics…. In addition to dissolving the main opposition party, almost all critical media outlets have been shut down,’ Associated Press  writes.

Middle East & North Africa

Putin ends confrontation between Israel and Iran in Syria

The intervention of Russian President Vladimir Putin ended a confrontation between Israel and Iran in Syria that had the prospect of converting the seven-year Syrian civil war into a regional conflict.

Analysis

‘The quiet after the Netanyahu-Putin call shows once again who’s the real boss in the Middle East. While the United States remains the region’s present absentee – searches are continuing for a coherent American foreign policy – Russia is dictating the way things are going.’ Amos Harel writes for Haaretz.

‘None of the parties involved wants to go to war at present. The Assad regime is focused on consolidating its control of the country, and Iran wants more time to establish an enduring military presence there. Israel, for its part, is intent on keeping Iran from digging in and on limiting its transfers of weapons to Hezbollah. Israel wants to preserve its freedom to strike targets in Syria at will. And Russia has been playing off Iran and Israel by allowing each to intervene in Syria.’ The Economist writes.

Sub Saharan Africa

Cyril Ramaphosa elected as new South African President

Following the resignation of Jacob Zuma, South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa has been elected as the new President.

Analysis

‘Zuma, who has led the ANC since 2007 and been South Africa’s President since 2009, was due to leave power next year. His tenure was marred by economic decline and multiple charges of graft, undermining the image and legitimacy of the party that led the struggle against apartheid.’ Jason Burke writes for The Guardian.

‘Ramaphosa has to think beyond the Zuma years and put an end to this governance by hysteria, because if he doesn’t, he will be the biggest victim of the current chaos,’ Khaya Sithole writes for the Mail and Guardian.

Europe

GDP in the EU grew 2.5 percent last year

The Gross Domestic Product in the European Union grew by 2.5 percent last year. It is the strongest performance of the 28-countries bloc since 2007.

Analysis

‘After many false dawns, at last some sunlight has fallen on Europe’s strongest economies…And the continent’s powerhouse countries – Germany and France – are seeing growth at levels not experienced since the financial crisis bounce-back of 2010.’ Kamal Ahmed writes for BBC.

‘The strength of the figures show the extent to which the UK has been trailing its European counterparts. UK GDP grew by 1.8% overall in 2017, the slowest rate of increase since 2012.’ Clare Downey writes for Sky News.

Oceania

Australian PM bans minister-staff relations

In the wake of Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce’s scandal, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has ordered to ban Government Ministers from having sexual relationships with their staffers.

Analysis

‘The news out of Australia comes about a week after the US House similarly voted to bar sexual relationships between US lawmakers and their staffers amid allegations of sexual harassment and misconduct from Hollywood to Capitol Hill.’ Lindsey Bever writes for The Washington Post.

‘The issue now is whether Joyce can rebuild into the retail politician he once was in the wake of this scandal. Liberals don’t think so, and so far a majority of Nationals do.’ Peter van Onselen writes for CNN.

Americas

17 killed in latest US school shooting

17 people were killed by a teenager when he opened fire at his former high school near Miami. It is the seventh school shooting so far this year.

Analysis

‘The teenage gunman charged with unleashing one of America’s worst school shootings had been trained by a white supremacist paramilitary group, and may have chosen Valentine’s Day to strike after the end of a relationship with a girlfriend.’ Nick Allen and Ben Riley-Smith write for The Telegraph.

‘But amid the anguished cries for action, a national tone was set by Donald Trump that was largely devoid of a sense of urgency. In a televised “address to the nation” made in part directly to the children of America – “you are never alone”, he said – the President gave no concrete indications of steps to prevent repetitions of .. disaster.’ Oliver Laughland, Richard Luscombe and Ed Pilkington write for The Guardian.

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