Weekly Policy Brief | 19 March - 25 March, 2018

Asia

Trump targets China with tariffs

President Trump directed the US trade representatives to impose tariffs on about $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. The decision follows a seven-month investigation into the intellectual property theft. The US also plans to impose new investment restrictions and take action against China at the World Trade Organization.

Analysis

‘The incoming tariffs are the most significant to date from a President who campaigned on a promise to correct the US’ global trade imbalance, particularly with China, and to revitalize US manufacturing. The move is just the latest sign that Trump is intent on putting his protectionist rhetoric into action despite concerns from economists and financial analysts, including within his own administration.’ Jeremy Diamond writes for CNN

‘The existing measures are unlikely to come close to reducing the annual US-China trade imbalance by $100bn as the administration has demanded. And China, holding more than $1tn of US treasury bonds, is playing with a strong hand.’ Edward Helmore writes for The Guardian.

Central Asia

Uzbekistan Opens New Railway Routes to Kyrgyzstan, Russia

In order to improve ties with neighbouring countries, Uzbekistan began weekly train service from Tashkent to Issyk-Kul region of Kyrgyzstan and also opened routes to the Russian cities of Saratov and Volgograd.

Analysis

‘During the autocratic Karimov’s 27-year rule in Central Asia’s most populous nation, its relations with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan were strained by disputes over transit routes, border security, water resources, and other issues.’ According to Radio Free Europe.

‘Kazakh diplomats said no similar summit had taken place in the last 20 years. Even when leaders did meet, previous summits yielded too few achievements to remember. One of the big reasons for the change of mood is the democratisation in Uzbekistan following the death of its first leader Islam Karimov in 2016.’ Georgi Gotev writes for Euractiv.

South East Asia

Vietnam suspended oil drilling under Beijing pressure

According to industry sources, Vietnam has halted an oil drilling project, which was licensed to Spanish oil firm Repsol, in the South China Sea following pressure from China.

Analysis

‘It would be the second time in less than a year that Vietnam has had to suspend a major oil development in the busy South China Sea waterway under pressure from China,’ James Pearson and Henning Gloystein wrote for Reuters.

‘The block lies near the U-shaped “nine-dash line” that marks the vast area that China claims in the sea and overlaps what it says are its own oil concessions. The field can produce 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil and 60 million cubic meters of gas a day.’ South China Morning Post postulates.

Middle East & North Africa

Turkey to expand offensive against Kurdish groups in Syria

After taking control of Syrian city of Afrin, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that his country will widen its military campaign against Kurdish groups in eastern Syria and potentially northern Iraq.

Analysis

‘The capture of Afrin had fulfilled Turkey’s aim of preventing the Kurdish militia from linking up its territories in eastern and western Syria, and Erdogan’s threat to expand the military operation was a bargaining chip aimed at Washington,’ Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı told ABC News.

Turkey has had hundreds of troops deployed at the Bashiqa training based near the northern Iraqi city of Mosul since the end of 2014. It has also had a tank battalion stationed near the Iraqi frontier town of Bamerni for about two decades, and has frequently sent planes and troops across the border to target the PKK.’ Selcan Hacaoglu writes for Bloomberg.

Sub Saharan Africa

Most African Nations Sign Free Trade Pact

Except for ten countries, all African countries have signed a continental free trade agreement. Two major economies of the continent – Nigeria and South Africa – did not join the pact.

Analysis

‘With the signing the deal, the participating countries will remove tariffs on 90 per cent of goods while the excluded 10 per cent of sensitive goods will be included in future…the deal envisages that the free trade zone to be created by participating countries will boost inter-African trade estimated at 10 per cent at the moment.’ Francis Arinze Iloani and Sunday Michael Ogwu professes for Daily Trust

‘The [Continental Free Trade Area] CFTA is expected to fulfil a major part of the integration efforts under Project 2063 of the African Union. If it emerges, it will be the largest FTA since the emergence of the stilted WTO and connect nearly 1.2 billion people (just under the population of India) in a new trade order.’ Gurjit Singh writes for DailyO

Europe

EU recalls its ambassador to Russia

European Union recalled its ambassador to Russia and had issued a statement unanimously agreeing that Russia was likely responsible for the nerve agent attack on a former Russian spy and his daughter.

Analysis

‘May is keen to demonstrate that the UK will continue to cooperate closely on security matters with the EU even after Brexit, and warned her fellow EU leaders that she now believed Russia to present a long-term strategic threat,’ Heather Stewart, Jennifer Rankin and Daniel Boffey write for The Guardian

Some leaders said they could not afford Russian retaliation against their own thinly-staffed embassies. Austria said it did not plan to expel Russians. Ireland’s Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said his government would consider individual action but “we’re not going to expel people randomly.” Mark Armstrong and Alasdair Sandford write for euronews.

Oceania

Indonesia to host conference of Afghan clerics

Indonesia will host talks among Indonesia and Afghan Islamic clerics at the end of the month in a bid to mediate the Afghan peace process.

Analysis

‘Historically, Indonesia has been well-regarded for its quiet but decisive mediation role in conflict resolution processes in Cambodia the 1980s, as well as for its actions in achieving peaceful resolutions to internal religious conflicts in Ambon and Aceh.’ Tolo News explains.

‘Indonesia has already contributed to the reconciliation process in Afghanistan through dozens of capacity-building training programs. The two countries will now join hands in counter-terrorism and combating human-trafficking. In Central Asia, Afghanistan is Indonesia’s main export destination and its second biggest trade partner, after Iran.’ Jakarta Global writes.

Americas

Finance Ministers Talk Aid for Venezuelan Refugees

Finance ministers from the Americas, Europe and Japan held a meeting on relief aid for Venezuelan refuges in Argentinian capital Buenos Aires. During the meeting, Colombia proposed seeking assistance from the International Monetary Fund.

Analysis

‘More than 500,000 Venezuelans have crossed into Colombia and 40,000 have left for Brazil as an economic meltdown worsened and opposition hopes of fair elections faded.There were an estimated 886,000 Venezuelan migrants in South America in 2017, up from around 89,000 in 2015,’ Reuters wrote.

‘Venezuela is undergoing a major economic crisis, with millions suffering food and medicine shortages, and Maduro’s government is late in paying about $1.9 billion in interest on its debt.’ Anthony Boadle writes for CNBC


In his latest article, Fahad Nabeel writes about how Trump’s foreign policy will be affected by the likely appointment of CIA director Mike Pompeo.

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