Weekly Policy Brief | 26 February – 4 March, 2018

Asia

Extending Xi’s rule

China’s Communist Party has announced that it intends to abolish presidential term limits, which will pave way for the incumbent President Xi Jinping to remain in power indefinitely.

Analysis

‘[The proposal] would abolish an institutional check introduced after Mao Zedong’s death in 1976 and risks a return to internecine power struggles that hobbled China during past leadership successions,’ Chun Han Wong writes for The Wall Street Journal.

‘Mr. Trump may well see Mr. Xi’s consolidation of power as part of a global trend toward increasingly influential leaders, in which he might include himself along with Mr. Xi and Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian leader, said James Mann, the author of “The China Fantasy,” which contradicted the popular view that increasing prosperity would lead to political liberalization in China.’ Jane Perlez and Javier C. Hernández write for The New York Times.

On increased LoC violations, Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research’s Sofia Asghar writes that it is necessary for India to mediate with Pakistan so that the exchange of fire can be halted in a bid to avoid any inadvertent escalation of crisis.

Central Asia

Proposed New Afghan Peace Talks

The Afghan Taliban have given a cold response to the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s offer to recognize the insurgents as a legitimate party in the negotiations as part of the so-called Kabul Process.

Analysis

‘The [Afghan] Taliban have themselves twice offered to talk to the United States in recent weeks, but have ruled out talks with the Kabul government, a key sticking point that must be resolved before any talks can start.’ James Mackenzie writes for Reuters.

‘In calling again for talks he [Ashraf Ghani] is trying to put pressure on the militants – but it’s an acknowledgement that, despite President Trump’s more aggressive US military policy, no one side can win the conflict militarily.’ Dawood Azami writes for BBC.

South East Asia

Australia called Cambodian PM’s threats unacceptable

The Australian government has called Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s threat to assault protesters during his upcoming visit to the island country as unacceptable.

Analysis

‘Hun Sen’s invective, however, has helped focus on his prolonged authoritarian crackdown, which has seen the opposition dissolved and its leader, Kem Sokha, jailed on espionage charges based on comments the latter made in Melbourne about grass-roots political strategy in 2013.’ David Boyle writes for Voice of America.

‘Australia has been a source of some $90 million of official development assistance to Cambodia in recent years while bilateral trade stood at $535 million in 2016.’ Aun Chhengpor and Kann Vicheika write for Voice of America.

Middle East & North Africa

Eastern Ghouta offensive

Syria’s White Helmets have said that more than 670 civilians have been killed as a result of continuous air strikes by the Syrian government, with the support of Russia, on Eastern Ghouta since February 18.

Analysis

‘Eastern Ghouta is the last rebel-held enclave bordering the Syrian capital, Damascus. Since 2013, forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have imposed a suffocating and deadly siege on the area. Yet several insurgent factions have retained control,’ writes The Guardian.

‘Daily “humanitarian pauses” – ordered by the government’s ally, Russia – have failed to stop the bloodshed in the enclave, where hospitals, schools and shops have been pounded by air and artillery strikes.’ Lucy Rodgers, Alison Trowsdale and Mark Bryson write for BBC.

Sub Saharan Africa

France’s first test of returning African Art Treasures

The upcoming visit of Benin President Patrice Talon’s France visit will be the French President Emmanuel Macron’s first test of fulfilling his vow of returning treasures from former African colonies.

Analysis

‘Macron’s restitution promise has been described as historic and even revolutionary. Over the next five years, he said, the conditions must be met “for the temporary or permanent restitution of African heritage to Africa.”…. France’s example may prove the tipping point for other former colonial powers, similarly pressured by restitution claims.’ Lisa Bryant writes for Voice of America.

Europe

American weaponry to reach Ukraine within weeks

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says the first delivery of lethal defence weaponry will reach the European country in weeks.

Analysis

‘In December, Washington prompted protests from Russia when it decided to provide lethal defensive weaponry, which some US officials said would include Javelin antitank missiles, to support Ukraine in its nearly four-year conflict with Russia-backed separatists,’ according to Radio Free Europe.

‘The Trump administration has touted the sale as evidence it is “tougher” on Russia than President Barack Obama, although its Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations sought to downplay the significance.’ Conor Finnegan writes for ABC News.

Oceania

Australians have handed in over 57,000 illegal weapons last year

Australians have voluntarily surrendered over 57,000 illegal weapons during nationwide gun amnesty last year.

Analysis

‘The haul is the largest effort to clean up weapons since gun laws were reformed in the wake of the Port Arthur massacre in 1996, when Australians have handed in approximately 464 firearms a day.’ Ben Graham writes for news.com.au.

‘Key to the success over several state-based amnesties that have occurred since the 1996 massacre was that licensed gun dealers had agreed to act as collection points. In previous amnesties, the guns have had to be surrendered at police stations.’ Rod Mcguirk writes for Time.

Americas

Trump imposes new tariffs on steel and iron imports

American President Donald Trump’s decision to impose new tariffs on steel and iron imports next week will trigger potential trade wars as several countries across the world protest the decision.

Analysis

‘Canada and Brazil are likely to bear the brunt of any tariffs on steel imposed by President Donald Trump, according to a 2017 report from the US Department of Commerce.’ Thomas Franck writes for CNBC.

‘But even if the measures finally unveiled are more limited, great damage is being done. The US built the architecture of the global economy in its image. The WTO was largely a US creation. Now Donald Trump, in a fit of impulsiveness, may tear it all down.’ Edward Alden writes for the Council on Foreign Relations.

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