Weekly Policy Brief | 26 March - 1 April, 2018

Asia

Kim’s surprise visit to Beijing

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un paid a surprise visit to Beijing on his first foreign trip since assuming office in 2011. According to media reports, Kim said that Pyongyang is committed to denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

Analysis

‘While Beijing remains a key ally of Pyongyang and an economic lifeline for the isolated regime, the two sides had drifted apart as China provided key votes for international sanctions. Their leaders hadn’t met since Kim’s ailing father visited in 2011. Trump’s summit decision risked sidelining China from the discussion, and may have acted as an impetus for Kim-Xi meeting.’ Andy Sharp writes for Bloomberg

‘Kim may have visited Beijing seeking approval for whatever he plans to propose. If so, this undercuts China’s repeated claims that it merely wants regional stability and has no central role in the crisis. It also makes a summit between Kim and Trump more likely now that Xi has already taken his turn.’ David Josef Volodzko writes for South China Morning Post.


­­­­­In his latest article, Muhammad Saad writes that Islamabad would be happily obliged to any nuclear restraint framework as long as Delhi follows suit.

Central Asia

Afghan Peace Conference in Uzbekistan

Representatives from more than 20 countries and international organizations took part in the Afghan Peace Conference in the Uzbek capital Tashkent. The participants declared their support for direct talks between Afghan government and Afghan Taliban. During the conference, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev offered to host talks between Afghan government and Afghan Taliban.

Analysis

‘The former Soviet republic [Uzbekistan] is seeking to raise its international profile as part of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s campaign to open up the nation of 32 million and attract foreign investment after decades of isolation and economic stagnation.’ Olzhas Auyezov and Mukhammadsharif Mamatkulov write for Reuters.

‘The conference was not entirely without precedent. In 1999, the late President Islam Karimov hosted a 6+2 format meeting, which brought together all Afghanistan’s neighbors — China, Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan — and the United States and Russia. At the close of discussions, which also included the Taliban, then strongly in the ascendant, and their armed opposition, the conference adopted the Tashkent Declaration. That document too spoke about the need for peace through dialogue.’ Eurasianet writes.

South East Asia

Myanmar’s Parliament elected new president 

Parliament has elected Win Myint, the speaker of parliament’s lower house and an ally of State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, as the new president following the sudden resignation of Htin Kyaw last week.

Analysis

‘Speculation is rife that Win Myint may try to carve out more powers for himself, which is allowed under the constitution but effectively blocked by Suu Kyi.’ Deutsche Welle postulates.

‘It is expected that U Win Myint as president will be more active than his predecessor and exercise more executive power while sharing governmental responsibilities with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.’ San Yamin Aung writes for The Irrawaddy.

Middle East & North Africa

Gaza violence

At least 17 Palestinians were killed and estimated 1,400 injured when Israeli soldiers open fire during mass demonstrations in Gaza. The violence erupted after mass demonstrations took place demanding the right of return for Palestinian refugees and their descendants to land in Israel.

Analysis

‘The border protests were seen as an attempt by Hamas to break the border blockade, imposed by Israel and Egypt after the Islamic militant group seized Gaza in 2007 from forces loyal to its rival, President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority.’ Associated Press writes.

‘Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 but, citing security concerns, still tightly controls its land and sea borders. Egypt also keeps its Gaza frontier largely shut.’ Jeffrey Heller writes for Global News.


Najeebullah Nasar considers that post-war Syria would be one of the most significant strategic and economic hubs for Russia in the region which would provide the basis for a new regional, diplomatic process between the anti-American forces like Iran, Turkey and Syria.

Sub Saharan Africa

Nigerian schoolgirls freed

Nigerian government forces and the militant group Boko Haram observed a weeklong cease-fire so that scores of kidnapped girls could be returned to their families in the town of Dapchi. According to the information minister, the deal was part of broader negotiations in which the government is seeking a permanent cease-fire.

Analysis

‘Boko Haram has wreaked havoc in northeast Nigeria for eight years, killing residents indiscriminately and kidnapping boys and girls in the region. And while the parents of these schoolgirls say they don’t want to keep their daughters at home, many feel they have little choice.’ Bukola Adebayo and Stephanie Busari write for CNN.

‘The recent kidnapping of 110 schoolgirls from Nigeria shows that Boko Haram is still a dangerous force in Nigeria – despite President Muhammadu Buhari claiming that the group had been technically defeated.’ BBC News explains.

Europe

Diplomatic expulsions continue

Russia has said that it would expel 150 Western diplomats, including sixty from the USA, in response to mass expulsions of Russian diplomats by more than 25 countries. Moscow also ordered the closure of American consulate in Saint Petersburg.

Analysis

‘Such expulsions are highly symbolic. Historically, it has been almost impossible to know exactly what impact, if any, these shake-ups have on Russia’s intelligence capability,” Yasmeen Serhan writes for The Atlantic.

‘The diplomatic message is: Russia has ceased to be a member of European polite society. It acts like an outlier and will be treated as such. If that’s a message European governments are getting more comfortable with, relations won’t get back to normal for a while.’ Stephen Sestanovich told Council on Foreign Relations.

Oceania

Pacific workers should do Australia’s regional work – World Bank

In its new report, the World Bank has argued that Australia should consider abolishing the three-month regional work requirement for holidaying backpackers and fill the labour gap with an expanded seasonal worker program to help boost Pacific economies.

Analysis

‘For backpackers on 417 working holiday visas, the “specified work” requirement allows them to extend their one-year visa by another year if they undertake three months’ work in the agricultural, mining, fishing or construction industries in a regional area.’ Ben Doherty writes for The Guardian.

Americas

More than 55 percent of former FARC rebels have left demobilization camps

According to the United Nation, more than half of the rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) who entered demobilization camps after signing a landmark peace accord with the government in 2016 have left them.

Analysis

‘There are no laws forcing the former rebels to stay in their territories, but the outflow of people is raising alarm bells among international monitors.’ Kimberley Brown writes for Al Jazeera.

‘The FARC demobilized last year and is preparing to enter Congress, but dissident factions have appeared in several parts of the country, particularly in remote areas where the state has traditionally been weak and drug trafficking is rife.’ Adriaan Alsema writes for Colombia Reports.

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