Weekly Policy Brief | 1 January - 7 January, 2018

Asia

US threatens Pakistan

Donald Trump has opened a new debate, at the beginning of the new year by threatening Pakistan to cut its aid. He said in a tweet, ‘the United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!’ Likewise, the White House Spokeswoman Sarah Sanders clearly signalled the US intentions to pressurize Pakistan to do more. She said, ‘they can do more to stop terrorism and we want them to do that’.

Analysis

Trump’s threatening statements have angered Pakistan’s military and civilian establishment, who play a direct role in policing counter-terrorism. However, the core national interests derive Pakistan’s foreign policy; not the aidsupports, therefore the aid cuts will not affect Pakistan’s position at all.

Maleeha Lodhi Pakistan’s Permanent Representative at the UN said, ‘we have contributed and sacrificed the most in fighting international terrorism and carried out the largest counter-terrorism operation anywhere in the world,’ ‘we can review our cooperation if it is not appreciated’. She added, ‘US Spokespersons should not shift the blame for their own mistakes and failures onto others’.

Central Asia

Unrest in Iran

Iran is confronted by anti-government protests in its major cities. The demonstration first took place in Mashhad, the sacred place for Shiite Islam, however dozens of protestors had been arrested, and also police had fired tear gas to disperse them.

Analysis

Iranians had a history of protests, but this time however, is different because Iranian intelligence and state apparatus are better and stronger than ever before. Also the long term aides of west, the Pehalvis are no more. Besides, some 4,000 government supporters rallied in favour of President Rouhani. If such a situation prevails in which the pro-government and anti-government factions fight, it will invite a civil war.

South East Asia

Jakarta to consider light rail transit

Jakarta Deputy Governor Sandiaga Uno has said that the city administration is considering an offer from PT Ratu Prabu Energi to develop a 200-kilometer Light Rail Transit (LRT) project with a US Dollars 200 billion investment value. ‘Today, Ratu Prabu Energi, one of the largest business groups in Indonesia, visited us to offer a mature concept for the construction of a 200-kilometer LRT project in Jakarta and surrounding cities’.

Analysis

On reflecting upon Jakarta’s recent move, Henry Wibowo, senior research analyst at PT Bahana Sekuritas said, ‘Indonesia’s economy is losing out on commodity gains after law makers wrapped protectionist policies around the nation’s resources. Their next problem: finding a lucrative replacement. Commodities now account for about 40 percent of all exports, down from almost 60 percent five years ago, according to Morgan Stanley’.

Middle East & North Africa

Gaza to Pay Israel for Electricity

The Palestinian Authority said that it is ready to resume its normal payments for electricity delivered to the Gaza Strip, in a statement by the PA Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh said. In June, the PA stopped paying for approximately 50 megawatts of electricity that Israel typically sends into Gaza, as a part of an effort to pressure Hamas to give up control of the Strip. Hamas has controlled Gaza since ousting the PA from the territory in 2007.
‘On the basis of PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s orders, the Civil Affairs Ministry asked Israeli authorities to restore 50 megawatts of power to Gaza,’ Sheikh said in a statement published on the official PA news site Wafa on Wednesday.

Analysis

‘Gaza’s two million residents have suffered from ongoing power cuts for the past decade, owing to Israel’s crippling land, air and sea blockade on the Strip, and because of the PA’s sanctions. The Gaza Strip’s sole power plant cannot operate at its maximum capacity as a result of the shortage of spare parts and industrial diesel because of Israel’s airtight blockade, in place since 2007. The electricity crisis has only made matters worse for Gaza’s residents, who have been subjected to three major Israeli military assaults over the past 10 years that have damaged much of the territory’s infrastructure. About 42 percent of Palestinians in Gaza suffer from poverty, youth unemployment stands at 58 percent, and some 80 percent rely on international aid, mainly food, according to the World Bank’. Writes Zena Tehhan for Al Jazeera.

Sub Saharan Africa

News: Suicide Attack killed 11 in Nigeria

‘A suicide bomber killed 11 people on Wednesday in an attack on a mosque in northeast Nigeria, the epicentre of the conflict with Islamist insurgency Boko Haram’, military officials and an aid worker said. ‘The bomber hit the mosque in the town of Gamboru in Borno state, near Nigeria’s border with Cameroon, during dawn prayers,’ said Ali Mustapha, an aid worker.

Analysis

‘No group has claimed responsibility so far, but the area and type of attack bear the hallmarks of Boko Haram, whose name roughly translates to “Western education is forbidden”. The group has waged an armed campaign in north-eastern Nigeria since 2009. The conflict has left at least 20,000 people dead and displaced more than 2.6 million. Last week, more than 700 people abducted by Boko Haram in Nigeria escaped from captivity. The captives included farmers, fishermen and members of their families,’ a Spokesperson for the Nigerian army said. At its peak, the group controlled large swaths of territory in the Lake Chad region, but the Nigerian military, with assistance from Chad, Cameroon and Niger, has pushed its fighters out of a number of provinces in the northeast. Despite the pushback from the international coalition, Boko Haram remains active in the area, often carrying out suicide attacks against civilians’. Writes Editorial Al Jazeera.

Europe

Europe hit by storm

Storm Eleanor has hit Europe, with winds of up to 100mph (160km/h) affecting the UK and other countries, injuring people, leaving thousands of homes without power and bringing transport links to a halt. At least four people were injured by falling trees in England and Wales. France’s interior ministry said nine people were hurt. There were also power cuts and flight cancellations in Western Europe.

Analysis

‘The collapse of a 30ft stretch of a harbour wall in Portreath, Cornwall, prompted the council to set up a respite centre for seafront residents if they wished to leave their homes. The properties could be at greater risk without the defence of the wall once high tides arrive on Wednesday evening. Around 20 addresses will be visited by flood co-ordinators who will offer them advice and the use of temporary shelter. Around 350 properties in the area were without power, Western Power Distribution said’. Writes Jamie Grierson and Kevin Rawlinson for The Guardian.

Oceania

North and South Korea re-opens Hotline

‘North Korea just reopened a communications channel with South Korea after nearly two years of silence, a move that could lower the chances of an accidental war between the two long-time foes. North Korean military officials spoke twice with their southern counterparts on January 3. They first chatted at 3:30 pm local time and “checked technical issues of the communication line” for about 20 minutes, according to South Korea’s Ministry of Unification. North Korea then called South Korea at around 6:07 pm simply to say “let’s call it a day today,”’ the ministry said.

Analysis

The sudden change in Kim’s behaviour is suspicious. It is a possibility that Kim is trying to buy time to strengthen its state apparatus, enhance its elements of national power, improve its nuclear weapon capability, get relief from sanctions by trading with its neighbours. It can also be a move to create diffidence among US and its allies. It is good to have better relations with its neighbours, that is a win-win situation for North Korea. However, the US is taking the credit for the development, which means that still South Korean policies are influenced by the US, which remains a key challenge for North to bypass. In the coming days, North Korea will also show interest to better its relations with other Pacific countries including Japan.

Americas

US close to a Nuclear War

North Korea will start a nuclear war with the US and its allies if Donald Trump does not get on the same page as his allies against Kim Jong Un,’ said Joe Biden. The former Vice President of the US told PBS News Hour that he was ‘worried from the beginning’ of the testy exchanges between Donald Trump and the rogue state. When asked if he thinks this is the closest the US has ever been to a nuclear war, he said: ‘Yeah, I do.’

Analysis

‘There was no shortage of major foreign policy crises to choose from in 2017, but the rapid escalation of tensions with North Korea, and the threat of nuclear war behind them, stood out from the rest. It is also one into which President Trump, an iconoclastic leader who disdains diplomacy and styles himself both a businessman and a brawler, has thrown himself with abandon’. Writes Adam Taylor for the Washington Post.

The US President again raised concerns for a nuclear war with North Korea by saying, ‘will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a nuclear button, but it is a much bigger one than his, and my button works!’ This is totally destabilizing, in a nuclear war nobody wins. US being a prosperous country has more stakes than North being a depleted regime.

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