Weekly Newscast | 25 June – 01 July, 2018

Asia

Border state’s census bodes bad news for migrants in India

The northeastern state of Assam will soon publish the results of a citizenship census, a project seen as a bid to identify unauthorized Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh. The move is expected to have political and sectarian repercussions ahead of the country’s general elections.

Analysis

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had vowed to eject ‘Bangladeshi infiltrators’ during the 2014 election campaign. His BJP won a sweeping victory over the Congress party in Assam’s state elections in April 2016, helped by polarization over immigration. However, it is not clear what the government will do once there is a final list of immigrants residing illegally. Striking their names off voters’ lists could be a first step, but authorities have not said how they will deal with issues of land ownership and jobs in Assam’s struggling economy.

There is no formal agreement with Bangladesh to deport illegal migrants, although Modi has built good relations with Bangladesh’s PM Sheikh Hasina. Bangladesh agreed in early June to take back 53 of its nationals in Assam jails who had been convicted of crimes, but officials have said Dhaka is not prepared to repatriate immigrants identified as illegal by the Foreigners’ Tribunals. Bangladesh is already struggling to cope with about 700,000 mostly Muslim Rohingya refugees who have fled Myanmar to take shelter in makeshift camps.

Middle East & North Africa

Erdogan’s victory ushers Turkey in a new era

Turkey’s main opposition candidate, Muharrem Ince, conceded defeat on Monday after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected to a newly empowered presidency with 52.5 per cent of the vote. In a victory address, Erdogan vowed to ‘increase our country’s international reputation’ and counter terrorism. This election also marks the abolition of the office of Prime Minister and introduces a new system in the country.

Analysis

‘Turkey’s election was held under a state of emergency, with media in the hands of state/majority control—so it can hardly be considered fair. It’s important also not to discount legacy. The opposition put forward an excellent campaign—for the first time in decades,’ states Elmira Bayrasli in a tweet.

‘Though the nation is split roughly between those who love and those who loathe the Turkish president, the anti-Erdogan half has always been splintered,’ Laura Pitel says in an article for Financial Times.

‘In his effort to consolidate his personal grip on power, the Turkish president has alienated even political allies with his endless purge of opponents—real and imagined—leaving him with ever-smaller margins for error,’ writes Steven A. Cook for Foreign Policy.

Sub Saharan Africa

Zimbabwe Presidential attacks targeted by a bomb blast

Two people died on Monday from injuries they suffered when an explosion rocked an election campaign rally by Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa at the weekend, a state-owned newspaper reported. Mnangagwa escaped unhurt from the blast on Saturday in the city of Bulawayo, an opposition stronghold, and police have said they were searching for a motive.

Police originally said 49 people had been injured at the rally, the first in Bulawayo by 75-year-old Mnangagwa in his campaign for presidential and parliamentary elections on July 30.

Leaders in South Sudan agree to a ceasefire

The warring parties in South Sudan on Wednesday agreed to a ‘permanent’ ceasefire as cameras clicked away and supporters of both groups watched on. The deal was signed by President Salva Kiir and former Vice President Riek Machar in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, in the presence of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.

Analysis

‘The agreement is a shift in position especially with President Kiir, who previously said he did not expect to work with Machar in the same government. We have to factor in lots of other opposition groups, including the South Sudan opposition alliance who are part of the IGAD peace process and mediation, as well as groups that are outside the process and other groups who are still carrying out armed resistance,’ says Ahmed Soliman, a Chatham House researcher on South Sudan, as he spoke to Al Jazeera.

According to Rights campaigner Beny Gideon Mabor, ‘It would make it clear that sovereignity is not a barcade to do anything and expect to get away with it. The government must show responsibility to protect in line with the constitutional obligations and international law.’

Europe

EU leaders reach a consensus on migration

European leaders have papered over the divisions on migration with a promise that some EU countries would take in migrants rescued from the Mediterranean Sea, after marathon talks at an EU summit lasting nearly 10 hours. Announcing the end of tense summit talks shortly before dawn, the head of the European council, Donald Tusk, tweeted that EU leaders had reached an agreement, including on migration.

It is not clear whether the deal will satisfy hard-liners within the Italian and German governments. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she and fellow leaders ‘still have a lot of work to do to bridge the different views’ on immigration.

Analysis

‘Europe is not facing a crisis on anything like the scale of 2015, when thousands of migrants were arriving in the Greek islands on a daily basis. The European Council says the numbers illegally entering the EU have dropped 96 per cent since their peak in October 2015,’ Michael Peel and Mehreen Khan write in their piece for the Financial Times.

‘The breakthrough on Thursday is temporary. The EU’s core problem—solidarity on migration among its member states—has not been solved, but only put off until a later date,’ says Bernd Riegert in an article for Deutsche Welle.

‘Italy, however, is the country calling the shots right now, and finally, it seems, Europe will have no choice but to listen,’ Barbie Latza Nadeau opines for the Daily Beast.

Oceania

Australia spend big to bolster their defence in collaboration with the US

The Turnbull government will spend nearly seven billion Dollars on massive, long-range surveillance drones that will dramatically expand Australia’s ability to spot military ships on the seas of Asia and tighten joint operations with the United States in the region.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced the purchase of the country’s first Triton drone on Tuesday, which has the wingspan of a Boeing 737 and will easily be able to complete a lap of the South China Sea after taking off from the Northern Territory. Australia will work with the US on the drone program, and the RAAF’s eventual fleet of six Tritons will operate closely with the United States on shared missions as needed.

Americas

The US Supreme Court sticks with the travel ban

The Supreme Court upheld President Trump’s ban on travel from several predominantly Muslim countries, delivering to the president on Tuesday a political victory and an endorsement of his power to control immigration at a time of political upheaval about the treatment of migrants at the Mexican border.

In a five-to-four vote, the court’s conservatives said that the president’s power to secure the country’s borders, delegated by Congress over decades of immigration legislation, was not undermined by Mr. Trump’s history of incendiary statements about the dangers he said Muslims pose to the United States.

Analysis

‘The logical core of the travel ban decision is the idea that the government prevails in a national security case so long as it can muster some—any—trace of evidence of a legitimate motive,’ states Aziz Huq in his analysis for Vox.

‘The Supreme Court decision upholding the travel ban is a shot across the bow of all lower courts that they must insulate themselves from the often incendiary comments of this president. The question is not how he views his office but how judges view their own,’ Jonathan Turley states in his piece the Hill.

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