Monthly Global Forecast | july 2021

Politics and Governance

US Troops Withdrawal before time by mid-July

It seems probable that the US forces will be withdrawn from Afghanistan ahead of September 11 deadline. As the last American troops leave, a top US general warned that the country could spiral into civil conflict. Since the US withdrew last month, fighting has intensified, with the Taliban taking large swaths of Afghan land. According to recent estimates, most of the nearly 4,000 troops deployed in recent months will be withdrawn by mid-July, well ahead of schedule. Addressing the post-withdrawal security concerns, Marine General Frank McKenzie, top US commander for the Middle East, told Voice of America earlier June that US military planners have been evaluating their ability to conduct air attacks in Afghanistan from distant bases elsewhere should that be necessary to protect US interests and those of its allies once its troops have left.

The 2021 General Election of Azad Jammu and Kashmir scheduled for July 25

The 11th general election for the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly (AJKLA) will begin on July 25, according to the Chief Election Commissioner Justice (retired) Abdul Rashid. The general election will be held in 33 constituencies within the boundaries of the AJK, and The NCOC had suggested delaying the forthcoming election by two months. However, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Prime Minister Raja Farooq Haider said that elections in Azad Kashmir should be held, just as by-polls were held in Pakistan despite the pandemic.

PM Imran Khan to visit Uzbekistan in July

Prime Minister Imran Khan will visit Uzbekistan in July 2021 to enhance bilateral trade and economic ties. Prime Minister Imran Khan and Uzbek President Islam Karimov will inaugurate the summit. On July 14, 2021, the two countries will meet in Tashkent for a Joint Ministerial Commission (JMC) meeting, followed by the Pakistan-Uzbekistan Trade, Investment, and Connectivity Conference on July 15-16. In exchange, Pakistan might offer commerce access to the landlocked country through its harbour. Abdul Razak Dawood, the Prime Minister’s Adviser on Commerce, Textile, Industries, Production, and Investment, will accompany the premier on tour. He believes that improving bilateral trade connections with Tashkent will boost Pakistan’s exports to the Central Asian region, which has a $90 billion trade potential. Dawood travelled to Tashkent with an inter-governmental delegation earlier this year as part of a fast-track approach.

The 2021 session of the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development

The 2021 session of the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) will be the ninth session of the HLPF. The HLPF, which meets under the auspices of the UN Economic and Social Council, is attended by representatives from all UN Member States as well as civil society organisations. It plays a key role in the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as in monitoring and reviewing their progress. The 2021 HLPF will also hold detailed reviews on nine SDGs: Goal 1 (no poverty), Goal 2 (zero hunger), Goal 3 (good health and well-being), Goal 8 (decent work and economic growth), Goal 10 (reduced inequalities), Goal 12 (responsible consumption and production), Goal 13 (climate action), Goal 16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions), and Goal 17 (partnership for the Goals).

Defence and Security

US Air Force (USAF) to Flight Test Skyborg Autonomous System at Orange Flag this July

US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) plans to flight test Skyborg autonomous system at Orange Flag exercises this July. The purpose of these drills is to test the interoperability of USAF fighters, bombers, and command-and-control planes. The Skyborg Vanguard program’s goal is to combine open mission systems with autonomous attractable unmanned air vehicles (UAV) technology to enable manned-unmanned teaming. USAF will use Skyborg to construct an aerial autonomous “best of breed” system that adapts, orients, and chooses at machine speed for a variety of more complex mission sets.

Seventh Biennial Meeting of States on Programme of Action on Small Arms and Light Weapons will take place from July 26-30

Pursuant to the resolution A/RES/75/241, the Seventh Biennial Meeting of the States will commence from July 26 to July 31, 2021. The meeting will be led by HE Mr Martin Kimani,  Kenya’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York, with the status of Ambassador/Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary. The mandate of the Biennial Meetings of States is to examine the national, regional, and global execution of the Programme of Action (PoA) to deter, resist, and eradicate the illicit trade in small arms and light weapons in all its forms, as well as the International Tracing Instrument (ITI). Improving the process of weapons tracing is also a key part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Trade and Economics

OPEC+ Policy Meeting scheduled for July 1

OPEC+ policy meeting will take place on July 1, 2021. With the commencement of the summer driving season, mass vaccination efforts against the COVID-19 pandemic, and increased internal and foreign travel, oil demand is increasing, resulting in higher oil prices. The group had decided at its previous meeting to continue with its goal of gradually raising crude output through the end of July. However, there had been no mention of Iran’s supply to the markets, which might be a problem for the coalition of oil-producing countries. Investors are now focused on OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries’ meeting, convening in July to discuss their production-cut strategy.“The next two weeks ahead of the OPEC+ policy meeting on July 1 2021 will be extraordinarily tight for the oil market, OPEC+ is expected to loosen supply, either officially with a higher production target or unofficially with compliance slippage. (sic)” For the next meeting, the market is foreseeing a cautious increase in output intended to avoid any serious price fluctuations.

Energy and Environment

The Vienna Energy Forum to begin from July 5th–7th

The Vienna Energy Forum 2021 will take place in July in Vienna, Austria. The Vienna Energy Meeting (VEF) is a biennial global multi-stakeholder forum aimed at addressing development concerns in the field of sustainable energy. Since its founding in 2008 by a joint initiative of the Austrian Government, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the UN Industrial Development Organization, it provides a forum for policymakers and decision-makers from all walks of life to come up with real answers to sustainability concerns. This year’s theme is the Fourth Industrial Revolution, in which cutting-edge manufacturing techniques are combined with intelligent technologies to aid the energy transition.

The World Renewable Energy Congress (WREC 2021) will take place in July 2021

The World Renewable Energy Congress (WREC 2021), organised by the World Renewable Energy Network, will be held in July 2021 in Lisbon, Portugal. This is a biennial event aimed at advocating renewable energy-based global development, featuring the most established international experts, policymakers, scientists, engineers, technology developers, and business practitioners addressing the most strategic issues of sustainable energy development and innovation. This event has been organised since 1992 to help in transferring the gains of renewable energy technology from developed countries to developing countries of the world. As the world’s energy resources are deteriorating, such initiatives can play a pivotal role in global development and sustainability.

Social Issues

13 million doses of Pfizer expected to arrive in Pakistan by July end

As the Covid-19 vaccinations are in insufficient supply across the country, forcing governments to halt vaccination campaigns, Pakistan and National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) have signed an agreement to procure 13 million Pfizer doses. While there is no surety of the exact, it seems probable that the first shipment of the Pfizer vaccine would arrive in July. It is also worth noting that so far, 100,000 doses of Pfizer vaccine have arrived under COVAX, an international alliance that has pledged free vaccines for the 20 per cent population of Pakistan.

Russia likely to launch Vaccine Tourism in July

Russia plans to start “vaccine tourism” by the month of July 2021. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants a vaccine tourism strategy in place by the end of June so that individuals from all over the world can get high-quality vaccinations. The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), which is promoting Russia’s Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine around the world, stated that vaccination tourism might begin in July 2021. Russia’s consumer protection agency, which supervises the Covid-19 response campaign across the country, announced that foreign nationals in Russia would be vaccinated “soon.”

The G20 Women 20 Summit 2021 to take place from July 13-15

The G20 Women 20 (W20) Summit 2021 will be held in July, prior to the G20 Leaders’ Summit 2021, which Italy will host in October 2021. W20 is the official G20 engagement group focused on gender equity. Its key objective is to ensure that the gender considerations are a part of G20 discussions and translate into the G20 Leaders’ Declaration as policies and commitments that foster gender equality.

The G20 in 2021 will be focused on three linked pillars of action: People, Planet, and Prosperity, which the Italian Presidency will lead.


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