Monthly Global Forecast | June 2023

Politics and Governance

Open-ended Working Group session on conventional ammunition will be held from 5 to 9 June 2023

The fourth substantive session of the Open-ended Working Group (OEWG) on conventional ammunition, established by General Assembly resolution 76/233 on 24 December 2021, is scheduled to take place in person at the United Nations headquarters in New York City from 5 to 9 June 2023. This session will aim to elaborate a new global framework of political commitments to address existing gaps in through-life ammunition management. Albrecht von Wittke has been designated as the Chair for this session. Notably, International Action Network on Small Arms (IANSA) will be coordinating civil society statements during the upcoming session in New York City.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit White House on 22 June 2023

On June 22, 2023, President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will host Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for an Official State Visit to the United States (US), including a state dinner. This visit will reinforce the strong partnership and close relationship between the two countries, highlighting their shared commitment to a free, prosperous, and secure Indo-Pacific. Discussions will cover strategic technology collaboration, defence, clean energy, space, educational exchanges, and addressing common challenges such as climate change, workforce development, and health security. This historic visit will offer a valuable opportunity for India and the US to further deepen a comprehensive and forward-looking global strategic partnership.

Defence and Security

US Defence Secretary will visit India on 4 June 2023

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin will visit New Delhi on June 4, 2023, to meet with his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh. The purpose of the visit will be to advance discussions on bilateral defence cooperation and enhance defence innovation and industrial collaboration initiatives. This trip will provide an opportunity to strengthen operational cooperation between the US and Indian militaries. It will be Austin’s second visit to India and his seventh to the Indo-Pacific since assuming office in January 2021. Prior to his visit to New Delhi, Austin will travel to Tokyo and Singapore, where he will address the Shangri-La Dialogue.

German-led live-fly exercise air defender will take off from 12 to 24 June 2023

Exercise Air Defender 2023 (AD23) is a multinational exercise led by Germany, focused on operational and tactical-level live-flying. Taking place from June 12 to 24, 2023, AD23 will span across Germany and involve Air Forces from 24 nations, deploying a total of 220 aircraft. Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz, Chief German Air Force, expressed that the exercise will aim to showcase the agility and swiftness of Air Forces as first responders and demonstrate NATO Air Power. While the majority of the exercise will occur in Germany, participating aircraft will also operate from forward operation locations in the Czech Republic, Estonia, and Latvia, with various airbases across the continent hosting the exercises. This will be NATO’s massive and largest exercise in history.

Trade and Economics

 

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement will enter into force in the Philippines on 2 June 2023

The Philippines has ratified the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement, and after a 60-day period, the agreement will enter into force in the country on June 2, 2023. It has already entered into force in Japan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam, Australia, China, Republic of Korea and New Zealand. As the world’s largest trade agreement in terms of GDP coverage, representing nearly one-third of global GDP, the RCEP aims to achieve trade liberalization through progressive tariff reductions. While some tariffs will be eliminated immediately, others will be gradually reduced over a period of 20 years. This significant step will reinforce the Philippines’ commitment to regional economic integration and cooperation.

Trade and Development Board will hold its seventieth session from 19 to 28 June 2023

The 70th Annual Session of the Trade and Development Board will take place from June 19 to 28, 2023, in Geneva, Switzerland. Acting as the governing body of UNCTAD between quadrennial conferences, the board convenes annually in Geneva to oversee the organization’s activities. To achieve the energy transition, effective ocean economic policies must be accompanied by international cooperation. UNCTAD has proposed a “Blue Deal” to bridge the investment and financing gap in the ocean sector. The High-level Panel at the session will address these issues, sharing insights from various countries and ocean economy sectors, and exploring policy areas that can assist developing nations in their decarbonization efforts. This will include enhancing domestic resource mobilization, increasing investment, and accessing debt relief or swaps for climate and nature initiatives.

Social Issues

Ad hoc committee of the General Assembly for the announcement of Voluntary Contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency will be held on 2 June 2023

Ad Hoc Committee of the General Assembly for the Announcement of Voluntary Contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine Refugees in the Near East will take place on June 2, 2023. This upcoming Pledging Conference will hold great significance for UNRWA, coinciding with the approaching 75th anniversary of its establishment after the displacement of Palestine Refugees in 1948. The primary objective of this conference will be to garner increased support from Member States for UNRWA, particularly in addressing the persistent financial challenges faced by the Agency. It will serve as a platform to engage with Member States at the highest level and draw attention to UNRWA’s invaluable role in promoting the human development and protection of Palestine refugees.

Best Practices for Gender Equality in Conventional Arms Control event will take place on 5 June 2023

On June 5, 2023, the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), in partnership with UN SaferGuard, The Small Arms Survey, Canada, El Salvador, and Ghana, will be hosting a side event focused on sharing Best Practices for Gender Equality in Conventional Arms Control. The event will present survey results from 40 organizations worldwide and explore strategies to improve gender balance and transform organizational cultures in this field. The discussion will focus on achieving gender equality within conventional arms control, including in the context of the OEWG. Panelists will address challenges and emphasize the importance of fostering gender balance and inclusive organizational cultures in this critical area of disarmament.

Energy and Environment

Bonn Climate Change conference will be held from 5 to 15 June 2023

From June 5 to 15, 2023, negotiators will convene at the World Conference Center Bonn (WCCB) for SB 58, the latest round of UN climate talks. Against the backdrop of a global energy crisis, food shortages, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the focus of this year’s talks will be on “implementation” and taking tangible actions. These discussions will be built upon previous years’ efforts, which primarily centred around finalizing the sections of the Paris Agreement—a landmark climate accord established in 2015 aimed at limiting global warming to below 2°C. Crucial topics such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to climate impacts, providing financial assistance to developing nations for emission reductions, and adapting to climate change will be addressed. The aim will be to foster collaboration and ensure all parties are actively engaged in enhancing their climate ambition.

Climate Group Asia Action Summit will take place on 8 June 2023

Continuing the momentum of Climate Week NYC 2022 and to power the green industrial revolution, the action summit series will expand to Asia, and the summit will be organized in Singapore on June 8, 2023. The summit will tackle the important question of how Asia can position itself as the green economic powerhouse of the future. It will focus on the industrial and clean energy transitions, two major decarbonization opportunities in the region. Leaders from the Under2 Coalition and affiliated business members involved in renewable energy and green steel initiatives will come together to address challenges, explore collaboration opportunities, and chart pathways for more ambitious climate action in the industry and energy sectors.

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