Weekly Global Newscast | October 1 - October 7, 2018

Asia

Putin and Modi All Geared Up for Another Military Deal

Putin and Modi cinched a series of agreements mainly emphasizing the strengthening of military ties between the two countries. Though the probability of strict US sanctions loom over Russo-Indian deal, it appears that Modi has finally chosen to make use of the American potential restraint as a factor that no more impedes its urge for military advancement given the latter’s intent to mend its ties with India.

Analysis

‘Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finalized the deal, which will see India take possession of a high-tech S-400 missile defense system, during a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Indian capital New Delhi. India’s purchasing of the Russian weapons system effectively forces the Trump administration to choose between punishing Delhi — and destroy the fledgling defense relationship — or granting the country an exemption, weakening the effect of the sanctions and opening up the US to accusations of favouritism.’ Manveena Suri and Steve George write for CNN.

 ‘Putin and Modi, who appear to enjoy a personal rapport, are also likely to discuss a deal for four Krivak-class frigates worth $2 billion and 200 light utility Ka-226 helicopters pegged at $1 billion. Putin, 65, and Modi, 68, are also set to discuss a possible second Russian-built nuclear power plant. Moscow is currently expanding India’s biggest nuclear power plant in Kudankulam. Also on the agenda is Russian training for Indian astronauts as New Delhi aims to launch its first crewed space mission in 2022. But military kit is the main focus.’ Reported The New Indian Express.

‘On the eve of Putin’s arrival, the US poured cold water on India’s efforts to obtain a waiver to avoid sanctions put in place under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Last month Washington slapped financial sanctions on the Chinese military for buying Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets and the S-400. However, the US is in a difficult position when it comes to India; it wants to enhance ties with New Delhi to counter China’s growing assertiveness, something that has also rattled India. Washington and New Delhi announced plans last month for joint military drills in 2019 and agreed on the exchange of sensitive military information. The US is now India’s second-biggest arms supplier.’ Reported the Al Jazeera.

Suicide Bomb Targets Election Rally in Afghanistan; Fear Through the Streets; ISIL Claims Responsibility

A suicide attack in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan took lives of thirteen people, living around twenty five wounded. The attack took place during the election rally of Abdullah Nasir Muhammad; a parliamentary candidate. The responsibility of the attack has been claimed by the ISIL.

Analysis

‘Nangarhar has seen a drastic increase in violence in recent years, with the emergence of the Islamic State, which has its foothold in the province, adding to insecurity caused by the Taliban. Corruption and a heavy infiltration of mafia have complicated the situation, so much so that after back-to-back suicide bombings in the provincial capital, Jalalabad, the government recently changed all senior police officials and handed control of security to the army. Still, whether the crisis has genuinely been averted is unclear, as some are sceptical about the technical feasibility of rolling out biometric machines across about 21,00 polling stations in just a couple of weeks.’ Zabiullah Ghazal and Mujib Mashal write for The New York Times.

‘The attack, the first since campaigning began last week ahead of elections for the lower house of parliament, underscored the widespread violence gripping the country 17 years after the U.S.-led invasion toppled the Taliban. The vote is scheduled for Oct. 20 but it’s unclear if the balloting will go ahead in areas controlled by the Taliban, who have seized several districts across the country in recent years and who carry out near-daily attacks. Tuesday’s attack targeted a rally for Abdul Naser Mohmand, an independent candidate, who was unharmed.’ Rahim Faiez writes for The Washington Post.

Middle East & North Africa

Iraqi Parliament Elects a New President

Iraqi Parliament elected Barham Salih as President. Adel Abdul Mahdi, a moderate Shia has been nominated as the Prime Minister as a result of the elections.  For a political landscape as complex and as marred by sectarianism as Iraq’s, this election of a Kurdish for a peoples office has incontestably sent out ripples of a more democratic culture within the region.

Analysis

‘Don’t look now, but democratic politics is in full bloom in Baghdad. Fifteen years after President George W. Bush faced derision for seeking to implant by force a representative democracy in the heart of the Middle East, Iraq’s political class has just navigated a major — albeit messy — transition of executive power in which popularly elected parties engaged in horse-trading to produce moderate, compromise candidates for president and prime minister.’  Guy Taylor writes for The Washington Times.

‘Iraq’s parliament on Tuesday elected a new president despite a bitter dispute between the two main Kurdish parties, who for the first time put forward competing candidates. In Iraq, a Kurd holds the presidency — which is a largely ceremonial role — while the prime minister post is reserved for a Shiite and the speaker of parliament a Sunni.’ Chase Winter writes for Deutsche Welle.

Sub Saharan Africa

First Lady; Melania Trump’s Five Day Trip to Africa

Melania Trump grabbed global attention on her solo trip to Africa, visiting some of the most remote areas. Her gestures, that largely differed from when she has been seen in public with her husband, the president, seemed to communicate intent to strengthen the imagery attached to the USA in view of Trump’s harsh rhetoric.

Analysis

‘In Africa, interest in Trump’s visit is being watched to see if she can mend fences after her husband’s reported comment that the continent contained “shithole” countries. Obama, the only black US president, toured the castle with his family in 2009 and said it was a reminder of “the capacity of human beings to commit great evil”. The first lady’s week-long visit to Ghana, Malawi, Kenya and Egypt has been seen as an attempt to carve her own path and emerge from her husband’s shadow and his divisive presidency. It also comes after another turbulent week for the Trump administration, with controversy surrounding Brett Kavanaugh, his pick for the US Supreme Court who has been accused of sexual assault.’ Reuters reported for The Guardian.

‘It took Melania Trump’s first big solo international trip for her to show a different side of herself — a playful, less serious one. And while she generously dished out warm smiles and happy waves, the first lady also used her four-nation tour of Africa to draw some firmer boundaries between her own views and those of her husband the president. She demonstrated her independence from her husband in ways large and small — like talking up U.S. foreign aid that he’s tried to slash and ignoring the Fox-only edict that the president imposes on TV screens when he’s aboard Air Force One. The first lady also did a few things she’s never done before, like wave to journalists as she boarded a U.S. government aircraft for the grueling five-day tour across multiple time zones.’ Darlene Superville writes for The Washington Post.

‘Experts have commented that the first lady’s trip could put a softer lens on the Trump administration’s international strategies and help close the existing rift between the Trump administration and Africa.’ Dhruv Gandhi writes for The Brookings

‘Still, it was hard to overlook the disconnect between the good will Mrs. Trump exuded on her trip and the Trump administration’s hard-edge approach to foreign aid. Her visit to Malawi, one of the world’s poorest countries, came as her husband’s administration moves to cut funding to the United States Agency for International Development by at least 30 percent. The administration has also called for the elimination of basic education funding for Malawi, according to the One Campaign, which fights poverty. Those budget proposals have drawn bipartisan opposition in Congress.’ Katie Rogers writes for The New York Times.

Europe

Elections in Bosnia- Herzegovina Amidst Threatening Political Frustration

Bosnian elections are being seen by the experts as a watershed moment in Bosnian history that will lead to a potential bridging of gaps within various ethnicities including the Serbs, the Croats and the Bosniaks. There are high hopes set at these elections to restore and prserve peace to the war-ravaged country.

Analysis

‘Twenty-three years after the end of its internecine war that left 100,000 dead, Bosnia-Herzegovina votes on Sunday to elect a bewildering number of national and sub-national presidencies, parliaments, and assemblies. Ethnic-nationalist parties representing the three main communities – Bosniak (Muslim), Serb, and Croat – are expected to top the polls as they have at most previous elections since the current political system was set up by the Dayton peace agreement in 1995.’ Andrew McDowall writes for The Guardian.

‘The results could determine whether Bosnia is strengthened as a unified, multiethnic country or fragments again along ethnic lines. The vote is seen as a test of whether a place ravaged by ethnic war and unemployment will move closer to European Union and NATO membership or remain mired by historical resentments. Alarmed by mounting Russian influence, the West recently has renewed its push to encourage Balkan nations to solve the disputes stemming from the 1990s breakup of Yugoslavia to be eligible for EU integration.’ Eldar Emric and Jovana Gec write for The Washington Post.

Oceania

Jacinda Ardern Prioritises the Passing of the Commerce Amendment Bill

The New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern expressed her resolve to get a commerce bill passed that will cater that will attend to the hiked petrol prices in the country. The planning and terms of execution on this bill have not been revealed so far.

Analysis

‘Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced the Government will prioritise the passing of a commerce amendment bill, as she is concerned with the high price of petrol.’ Reported The New Zealand Herald.

‘The Government’s going to force the fuel industry to cooperate with a study of the market, with the Prime Minister saying she’s “hugely concerned” at the prices consumers are currently paying at the pump and calling petrol margins unacceptable. Jacinda Ardern told reporters at her post-Cabinet news conference petrol is an unavoidable cost for many and while the international price of crude oil has risen almost 30 per cent just this year, that doesn’t tell the full picture of what is going on in New Zealand.’ Reported TV New Zealand.

Americas

Brazilian Elections; Far- right for the First Win

Latin America’s largest democracy held its polls towards the end of the past week. Though the complete results haven’t started pouring in as yet, the election is being regarded as the most significant turn in the Brazilian history.

Analysis

‘Brazil’s turbulent 2018 presidential election will go to a second round runoff between far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad of the left-leaning Workers’ Party (PT). Bolsonaro nearly took Sunday’s election in the first round as he and his team insisted he would but in the end just missed the required 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a runoff, winning 46 percent instead. Haddad won 29 percent of the vote. The second round is scheduled for October 28 with much more drama promised in the meantime in a Brazil now seemingly more bitterly divided than ever.’  Sam Cowie and David Child write for Al Jazeera.

‘Brazilians going to the polls on Sunday essentially face two choices out of thirteen candidates, when they vote for a president. The front runner is far right candidate Jair Bolsonaro, a former military officer and legislator, referred to by many in Brazil as Tropical Trump, because of his long list of offensive remarks hurled at just about everybody. Trailing behind him is Fernando Haddad, a moderate from the leftist Workers’ Party (PT), who replaced imprisoned former President Luiz Ignasio ‘Lula’ da Silva for presidential candidate. If no candidate obtains 50%, the second ballot will be October 28. Given Brazil’s role in the global economy and in financial markets, its elections should matter to banks and other financial institutions around the world.’ Mayra Rodriguez Valladares writes for Forbes.

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