Asia
US-China trade talks in Beijing
The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were part of a delegation which arrived in Beijing for a two-day talk on the trade policy amid high tensions. The Chinese delegation, on the other hand, is expected to be led by the President’s Economic Advisor Liu He.
The talks are expected to address the US grievances over China’s trade policy, including practices that force US companies to share their technology in return for access to the Chinese market. The US President Donald Trump has expressed his desire to cut the 375 billion dollar trade deficit of the US with China. It is expected that the negotiators would look to cut a short-term deal delaying the recent US tariffs on 50 billion dollars’ worth of Chinese goods.
Saleha Mohsin and Andrew Mayeda state in an article for Bloomberg, ‘The stakes could hardly be higher. Together, the US and China account for more than half a trillion dollars in commerce. Companies from Apple Inc. to Ford Motor Co. rely substantially on Chinese suppliers, giving Beijing an additional pressure point to retaliate against US tariffs.’
In a short piece for Quartz, Zheping Huang states, ‘In the tit-for-tat trade battle between China and the US, Beijing is targeting Trump’s voter base in hopes of exerting the most leverage, aiming tariffs at American agricultural exports such as soybean and sorghum that come from predominantly Republican-voting states.’
‘If the President gets the results he’s looking for (whatever they may be) and Beijing is perceived as having played an important role in reaching that outcome, that could give Trump the cover he probably needs to put his pistols back in their holsters and focus on an effective, comprehensive US-China free trade agreement,’ Daniel J. Ikenson writes in an article for the Cato Institute.
Central Asia
Twin bombings in Afghanistan leave dozens dead
At least 29 people were killed in Kabul on April 30 following a series of blasts claimed by the Islamic State. The dead included many journalists who were on site to report the first blast.
According to various reports, the second blast occurred after the assailant had disguised himself as a journalist. The journalists who were killed hailed from Radio Free Europe, Agence France-Presse, and Tolo News, among others. It is reported that the headquarters of the national Intelligence Agency was the initial target, an area which also hosts various foreign embassies and the NATO headquarters.
‘[The Taliban has] said it would target Afghan and foreign security forces but would avoid civilian casualties. The rival extremist Islamic State group, however, has made targeting civilians a key part of its strategy,’ Pamela Constable and Sayed Salahuddin share their views in the Washington Post.
In an interview with Foreign Policy Interrupted, Ashley Jackson said, ‘The emergence of Daesh [the Islamic State] is widely talked about but it’s a poorly understood and complex phenomena. In many areas, Daesh is comprised of ex-Taliban commanders with no discernable links to the Islamic State.’
‘Security officials have warned of the risk of increased attacks in the run-up to parliamentary elections planned for October. The attacks underscore the struggles Afghan security forces have faced to rein in the militant groups since the US and NATO concluded their combat mission at the end of 2014,’ Saeed Kamali Dehghan, Akhtar Mohammad Makoii, and Haroon Janjua state in their analysis of the event for the Guardian.
South East Asia
India-Malaysia joint military exercise
On Monday April 30, the armies of India and Malaysia began the second phase of their joint military exercise termed as ‘Harimau Shakti’. The exercise is being conducted in Hulu Langat forest of Malaysia under really tough conditions. As per a statement released by the Indian Defence Ministry, ‘The exercise is aimed at bolstering cooperation and coordination between the armed forces of both the nations and to share the expertise of both the contingents in conduct of counter-insurgency operations in jungle terrain.’ The joint exercise is expected to continue till May 13th.
In his report of the event for The Diplomat, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan states: ‘In the face of unprecedented uncertainties in the Indo-Pacific, mostly driven by China’s rise, India’s outreach efforts to ASEAN has accelerated. The strategic aspects of the relationship have also clearly become more important over time as “Look East” has begun to be translated more into “Act East”… As China becomes increasingly active in India’s backyard in South Asia, New Delhi can be expected to focus equally on China’s backyard in Southeast Asia.’
Middle East & North Africa
Operations in Iraq winded up by the US coalition
The US-led coalition fighting against the Islamic State in Iraq closed its headquarters in Baghdad on 30th of April, 2018. As per the US Central Command, the decision came as a response to the ‘changing composition and responsibilities of the coalition’.
The Defense Secretary of the US Jim Mattis did not go into the specifics about the number of US troops in the country after this decision. However, he stated that their priority would now change from ‘enabling combat operations’ to developing self-sufficiency in the Iraqi forces. Meanwhile, the Iraqi PM Haider al-Abadi, who is seeking re-election on May 12, faces pressure from the opposition as they demand the US troops to leave their country.
In an article for the Military Times, Todd South is of the opinion, ‘Experts say while it’s likely that troop numbers in Iraq will decrease, those resources will likely spread out to assist nearby missions in the region—from the Arabian Peninsula to Afghanistan and missions in Africa.’
‘The last Iraqi parliamentary elections took place in 2014, shortly before ISIS seized one-third of Iraq’s territory. Since then, the ISIS advance and the subsequent war to defeat the extremist group has transformed the fortunes of Iraqi political actors—but no one quite knows by how much,’ Nussaibah Younis states in a piece for the Defense Post.
‘ISIL was able to succeed because of the breakdown of the state and the weakness of its security sector. Now, ISIL is gone, but state weakness is manifesting itself in a very different way,’ Renad Mansour opines in an article for War on the Rocks.
Sub Saharan Africa
Church attack shakes the Central African Republic
Death toll rose to 26 after an armed group attacked a Church in CAR’s capital of Bangui on Tuesday, May 1. President Faustin-Archange Touadera declared three days of national mourning following the attacks. According to Mr. Antoine Mbao Bogo, President of the Central African Republican Red Cross, the death toll is expected to rise. He said, ‘We have counted 99 seriously wounded, some of whom are being treated. And some are dying because the there was nothing to be done, despite the work of the doctors.’
The attack is another addition to a list of deadly clashes in CAR where state control is weakening and inter-faith violence that has long blighted the country threatens to flare again. The attack occurred on the border of the predominantly Muslim PK 5 neighbourhood where 21 people were killed last month, according to the media reports. Four years ago, over a dozen people, including a priest, lost their lives in an armed attack at the same church.
In the words of Amnesty International’s Central Africa Researcher Balkissa Ide Siddo, ‘In a country where the images from months of horrific violence are still fresh in the memories of people, these renewed tensions could stoke more attacks and bloodshed if those responsible are not stopped once and for all.’
Europe
Armenian opposition backed by thousands of protestors
The Armenian capital of Yerevan swelled with demonstrations on Tuesday after Nikol Pashinyan from the national opposition called for a nationwide civil disobedience as the legislators thwarted his ambitions of becoming a Prime Minister.
Mr. Pashinyan was out-voted 55 to 45 in the National Assembly despite being the only candidate. The unrest escalated following the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan of the Republican Party, which holds the majority in the legislature. Mr. Sargsyan held the Presidency for the last 10 years. But after the end of his term, the legislators decided to elect him as the Prime Minister which sparked mass protests.
In an article for the New York Review of Books, Viken Berberian writes, ‘[Sargsyan] is a member of a quasi-oligarchic, nationalist party with wide support in the military. While his government refrained from a draconian crackdown, the Republicans have lacked legitimacy among the population for a long time.’
‘The ruling Republican Party did not run a candidate for the post, and they have not made clear what their strategy will be for maintaining power. But during the public discussion they portrayed Pashinyan as an untested leader too risky to steer Armenia through its many security challenges,’ Joshua Kucera says in an article for Eurasianet.
‘Political demonstrations worked in Armenia for the same reason they worked in Berlin in 1989, and in Kiev, Ukraine, in 2014: because they moved a key person to question the legitimacy of the regime, even his own regime.’ Anne Applebaum opines in her piece for the Washington Post.
Oceania
Australia and the USA warn China against militarization of Islands
High-level officials from the US and Australia expressed their concern over reports that Beijing has positioned missiles to some outposts on the Spratly Islands in the contentious South China Sea.
According to reports, anonymous sources have revealed that China has deployed anti-ship cruise missiles along with various surface-to-air missile systems. Joe Felter, the Deputy Assistant Defence Secretary for the region stated that the US ‘should be concerned’ about these moves from the Chinese which ‘look like an effort to militarize’ the disputed islands. Meanwhile, the Foreign Minister of Australia was of the view that these deployments go against the assurances from China to not militarize the disputed territories.
Tuan N. Pham states in an article for The Diplomat, ‘For Beijing, controlling the [South China Sea] is a step toward regional preeminence and ultimately global preeminence.’
‘The South China Sea, which is home to more than two hundred specks of land, serves as a gateway to global sea routes where approximately $3.4 trillion of trade passes annually. The numerous overlapping sovereign claims to islands, reefs and rocks—many of which disappear under high tide—have turned the waters into an armed camp,’ Amanda Macias opines in a piece for CNBC.
Council on Foreign Relations’ Ely Ratner writes, ‘The dearth of public information about China’s activities in the South China Sea has hampered regional coordination and abetted China’s ability to take incremental steps to consolidate control.’
Americas
The Central American Caravan crosses into US
The last group of the activist-organized caravan which included 70 men, women and children entered the US on Friday to seek asylum. This is the largest group that the US has accepted until now. The migrants, who are fleeing prosecution and violence in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala, are among the total of 228 who have crossed the border since last weekend. The nearly 400 migrants who reached Tijuana last week faced a big dilemma about whether to enter the United States and request asylum, commencing a complex and tiring process that could still end in deportation. Meanwhile, many of them decided to stay in Mexico for now.