Key Points:

• The growing literature drawing parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine compares the pre-war posturing of China with that of Russia before its attack on Ukraine.
• Despite these comparisons and conclusions, there are clear differences between the two cases.
• Russia’s pre-war posturing was explicit, while China’s show of naval and aerial capabilities has been much more contained in contrast.
• The current international isolation and hostility facing Russia offer valuable insights for China to go down a similar path.
• Differences between the two countries’ political thought, military might, and economic conditions also dictate the difference in their approaches.
• China can be expected to exercise all caution in the matter.