Amidst a complex geopolitical landscape, the fate of the Iran nuclear deal hangs in the balance, its future uncertain as the diplomatic tensions and strategic considerations intertwine. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), finalised on 14 June 2015 to address the Iranian nuclear concerns, was reached between China, France, Germany, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, the United States (US), the European Union’s High representatives (the E3/EU+3) and Islamic Republic of Iran. Resolution 2231 (2015) was adopted to forge stronger relations with Iran through JCPOA implementation, which bolsters confidence in Iran’s peaceful program and supports economic and trade ties. The resolution mandates that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports confirm Iran’s compliance with JCPOA actions and peaceful nuclear activities. The agreement aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear program for sanctions relief. Yet, Iran’s relations with the West have worsened amid accelerated nuclear advancements.
Challenges arose as President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from JCPOA in 2018 and subsequent retention of economic sanctions. Trump justified this decision by characterising the Iran deal as highly unfavourable and unbalanced, stating that it stood as one of the most lopsided transactions the US had ever engaged in. According to assessments from both US intelligence agencies and IAEA, the Iran deal was effectively curbing the advancement of the Iranian nuclear program.
US sanctions on Iran have not been effective in prompting significant policy changes, despite causing hardships for ordinary Iranians.
President Joe Biden vowed to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and pledged to maintain sanctions on Iran for human rights abuses and terrorism support while aiding their COVID-19 response. During a White House meeting, President Biden assured Israel’s President Herzog of preventing Iran’s nuclear weapons and affirmed unwavering US-Israel security ties, reiterating his strong support for Israel. He said the US is open to rejoining the JCPOA if Iran fulfils its duties, but it is resolute on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear arms. Under Biden’s approach, akin to Trump and Pompeo’s, Iran nears nuclear threshold status. In the absence of a renewed agreement, Iran has amassed Uranium enriched to 60%, close to weapons-grade. Iran’s resistance to IAEA inquiries led to shutting off cameras at nuclear sites. Trump’s withdrawal and Biden’s revival struggle indicate Iran could create bomb material in 12 days, unlike in a year while under the deal.
On 18 October 2023, three elements of Resolution 2231 will lapse; firstly, the call for Iran to abstain from nuclear-capable ballistic missile activities. Secondly, the Security Council’s necessary approval for missile, drone, and technology transfers to and from Iran. Thirdly, the asset freeze on 23 individuals and 61 entities tied to Iran’s nuclear and missile efforts. This will ease the diplomatic strain on Tehran and provide a political win for President Ebrahim Raisi. However, European diplomats have informed Iran of their intent to prolong expiring EU ballistic missile sanctions from the 2015 nuclear deal due to concerns over Russian drone deployment against Ukraine, Iran’s potential missile transfers to Russia and Iran’s violation of the 2015 accord.
The US withdrawal, the Western sanctions, and European intent to prolong the sanctions may worsen the tensions and could potentially lead Iran toward highly enriched Uranium production. It then potentially affects the cooperation with IAEA, and retaining missile sanctions could lead Iran to exceed its 2000km missile range.
Adding to this, Russia joined forces with its partner Iran in opposing Western efforts to uphold restrictions on Iran. Russia’s foreign ministry underscored the rejection of Western efforts to introduce new approaches detrimental to Russian-Iranian cooperation, emphasising the irreplaceable necessity of implementing the UN Security Council-approved JCPOA. Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, stated that Western nations have taken advantage of this circumstance to apply pressure on Iran and secure concessions, despite these actions being disconnected from the JCPOA. Russia, in this situation, is capitalising on its gain while dealing with the West.
However, other countries like UAE and Norway have expressed concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and its potential lasting consequences. The apprehension is due to Iran’s potential to produce sufficient fissile material for a single nuclear bomb in approximately 12 days, a significant reduction from the roughly one-year timeframe observed under the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Responding to the current development, Pakistan has temporarily halted the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project due to US sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program.
The past experiences and contemporary development have further deepened the mistrust between the West and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The US withdrawal from the deal led Iran to reduce its commitments. The negotiation that started in the past to revive the deal in 2021 did not result in any breakthrough or agreement. Despite the growing mistrust, a resolution between the West and Iran is needed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and alleviate the Western sanctions that are impacting Iran’s economic progress.
The negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear deal had resumed on 4 August 2022, involving Iran, Russia, the EU, and the US indirectly after months of deadlock. Despite the negative consequences of Donald Trump’s Iran policy, Joe Biden had an opportunity to build the nuclear understanding that would pave the way for the nuclear agreement. Besides, a development involving US-Iran relations took place in early August this year. An agreement has been reached wherein the US will release detained Americans in exchange for Iran freeing five of its prisoners. Iran will gain access to approximately $6 billion in frozen oil revenue from South Korea, managed by Qatar for humanitarian use. The transfer process has begun, though the specific prisoners and their release dates are unclear. The recent agreement marks a positive albeit limited stride in the right direction, even amidst escalating distrust and increased tensions between the US and Iran. As President Biden approaches the election season, the possibility of a nuclear understanding becomes likely after this agreement, opening the door to increased diplomatic engagement.
The US and its Western allies must adopt a carefully considered strategy in light of the changing circumstances surrounding the Iran nuclear deal. US sanctions on Iran have not been effective in prompting significant policy changes, despite causing hardships for ordinary Iranians. Iran’s strategic engagement with neighbours and strengthening its ties with China have improved its standing internationally.
So, the possibility of Iran having nuclear weapons puts regional and international security in jeopardy. The top goal must be stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons, while Western countries are still concerned about Iran’s complicated governance and human rights situation. Maintaining Security Council resolutions, ensuring Iran complies with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) requirements, and putting the country under strict IAEA inspections are essential. This strategy eliminates the possibility of nuclear escalation while maintaining transparency over Iran’s nuclear program. It might not be practical to wait for a new administration; proactive negotiations are vital.
