Pakistan became an overt nuclear weapons power on May 28, 1998, just days after India tested nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s nuclear journey started decades earlier. The silver jubilee of Pakistan’s nuclear capability is a good time to assess what the country has achieved and its future trajectory. While nuclear weapons have ensured Pakistan’s security against a conventionally superior, hostile neighbour, Pakistan’s civil nuclear programme has also achieved many milestones in the fields of energy, agriculture, medicine, and industry. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons ensure the country’s security, while peaceful applications of nuclear technology contribute to the socioeconomic development of the country.
India and Pakistan have had adversarial relations for over 70 years, fought many wars and came close to conflict on other occasions. Pakistan’s pursuit of nuclear weapons was meant to ensure security against Indian aggression. Thus, Pakistan has pursued a policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD). It has relied on short and medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missile capabilities, combined with concealment and dispersion, in order to achieve deterrence. However, deterrence is not a static concept. It has to adjust to the capabilities and doctrinal changes of the adversary.
India’s nuclear programme, on the other hand, is status-driven. Thus, it has been on an upward spiral, pursuing a triad of nuclear forces, nuclear-powered submarines, hypersonic missiles and ballistic missile defence. This has been accompanied by aggressive limited war doctrines like Cold Start, a backtracking of its No First Use commitment, and a move towards pre-emption. This is highly destabilising for deterrence in South Asia. This has heightened Pakistan’s security dilemma. Pakistan has responded by adjusting its nuclear doctrine and force posture in order to maintain the integrity of its nuclear arsenal.
Pakistan has three centres of excellence to promote and share best practices in nuclear security, the Pakistan Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Security (PCENS), the National Institute of Safety and Security (NISAS), and the Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences (PIEAS).
Pakistan has pursued a doctrine of Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) since 2013 to deal with the whole spectrum of threats from India – from conventional to nuclear. FSD would be pursued within the limits of the overarching policy of CMD, which essentially means that Pakistan would continue to seek deterrence cost-effectively without engaging in arms races. As Gen Khalid Kidwai recently stated, “Full Spectrum Deterrence works on a strategic, operational and tactical level with full range coverage of the large Indian landmass to ensure strategic stability in South Asia. Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence capability will continue to ensure that instability would not be allowed to be introduced to South Asia.” Pakistan has also developed a rudimentary sea-based capability based on its Babar-3 cruise missiles, which provide credible second-strike ability. On land, Pakistan relies on short and medium-range ballistic missiles to achieve deterrence. It also has the Ababeel equipped with Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV) capability to defeat Indian Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD). However, with India indulging in the massive conventional and nuclear buildup, combined with the instability introduced by BMD and hypersonic missiles, Pakistan constantly faces challenges to maintain its deterrence credibility. However, Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence is robust and has held for the last 25 years and will continue to hold for the foreseeable future.
In addition, Pakistan has a robust command and control system, a stringent export control system, and a commitment to disarmament and a non-proliferation regime. The country has a stance that peace and stability can only be ensured through a strong non-discriminatory rules-based international order. A robust non-proliferation regime is the central pillar of such a rules-based order.
Pakistan Signatory to Treaties and Agreements (Source: Compiled by the Author)
Pakistan has also made tremendous strides in harnessing nuclear technologies for socioeconomic development. The state has six operational nuclear power reactors with a total energy generation capacity of 3440 MW. Presently the percentage of nuclear power in the whole energy mix remains very small at 12%. Pakistan has plans to generate 8,800MW of electricity through nuclear means by 2030 to meet the country’s energy needs. Under its Nuclear Energy Vision 2050, Pakistan envisages a nuclear power generation capacity of 40,000MWe through 32 Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) that would provide 25% of the country’s energy requirements.
(Source: Nuclear Power in Pakistan)
Pakistan has a record of 50 years of safe operation of NPPs that have been appreciated internationally. Nuclear energy is not only helping achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs) but also contributing to socioeconomic development in the country. Promoting peaceful nuclear technology increasingly plays an important role in national development but will also help fight the scourge of climate change.
Nuclear technologies are also being used in the health sector for the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Presently Pakistan operates 19 cancer hospitals nationwide which treat over a million patients each year.
PAEC Operated Cancer Hospitals (Source: PAEC)
Besides, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) is utilising nuclear technology to improve the agriculture sector’s productivity by introducing new crop varieties, pest control technologies, plant nutrition and water management, animal health and productivity, food decontamination and preservation. Pakistan has developed almost 125 stress-tolerant crop varieties that have wider adaptability to harsh weather. This helps to achieve the UNSDG of eradicating hunger and malnutrition. Moreover, exports play a vital role in Pakistan’s economy. Pakistan’s exports are mainly (70%) based on agriculture. Therefore, any efforts in this sector contribute directly toward the development of Pakistan. Nuclear technologies are also being used in industry.
Pakistan has a long history of cooperation with the IAEA as well. Its nuclear safety and security record is also impeccable. Pakistan has three centres of excellence to promote and share best practices in nuclear security, the Pakistan Centre of Excellence for Nuclear Security (PCENS), the National Institute of Safety and Security (NISAS), and the Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences (PIEAS). These provide training to international personnel and actively engage with the international community to promote nuclear security and safety.
Pakistan’s nuclear journey has been characterised by responsibility, restraint and rationality. For Pakistan, nuclear weapons ensure security by providing deterrence against a conventionally superior adversary, India. Pakistan’s policy of CMD has been the guiding principle that shuns arms races. Likewise, nuclear technologies in the field of medicine, energy, industry and agriculture are contributing tremendously to the socioeconomic development of Pakistan as well as helping the country achieve UNSDGs. Pakistan aims to achieve zero carbon emissions for the energy sector by 2050, and nuclear energy is instrumental to it. It will help ensure energy and climate security. There is a need to expand peaceful uses of nuclear technologies that will contribute positively to the struggling economy of Pakistan. Ultimately, Pakistan’s nuclear programme has been a story of success, ensuring the country’s security and helping its quest for development.
